The labour market has pushed the Fed into more aggressive action. What it does next still hangs in the balance.

There are good explanations for last week’s soft jobs data. Growth is unlikely to fall off a cliff, and a soft landing is still our most expected outcome.

While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates

China’s leaders have voiced support for the economy, which is moderating after an initial bounce from the re-opening.

A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system

As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.

The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates

Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.

The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.

Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe

The new UK government unveiled the promised "mini budget" last Friday that slashed taxes across the board.

Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action

While guidance remains hawkish on further interest rate hikes into 2023, implementing such a path will be hard in practice.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.

US inflation reduction bill will help cut emissions while federal deficit reduction will take time to come through.

A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong

The ECB finally raises interest rates

The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.

The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.

While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.

The US central bank came out fighting after delivering its first rise in rates this cycle, but it is likely to be constrained by a cocktail of risks to growth

The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.

The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.

Sanctions fallout from Ukraine escalation likely to hit capital not commodities

Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.

Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.

Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.

Central bank policy stance and geopolitical risks put pressure on markets.

Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.

New variant has the potential to be a game-changer for the near-term macro and market outlook.

Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground

At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell confirmed that the test of "substantial further progress" on inflation has now been met.

Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach