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Rich Pickings podcast: What the lessons of 2023 can teach investors for the year ahead
From artificial intelligence to US resilience, Richard Edgar discusses the big themes of 2023 with a panel of multi asset portfolio managers.
Chart Room: Rewriting the yen narrative
We think recent tweaks to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy could reset the narrative and pave the way for yen appreciation.
Chart Room: Fidelity Leading Indicator points to contraction
After a summer slowdown, the latest Fidelity Leading Indicator is forecasting a tougher winter.
January FLI update: Fiscal good news offsets near-term softening
The FLI Cycle Tracker remains in the ‘top-right’ quadrant with growth above trend and improving, albeit momentum has softened for a second month.
Chart Room: Asia’s export engine supercharged by new trade deal
Chart Room: Asia’s export engine supercharged by new trade deal
Fidelity Leading Indicator extends strong momentum of recovery
FLI-implied activity appears to be heading to levels only slightly below the pre-COVID peak, despite pockets of impact from renewed mobility restrictions.
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows record short-term growth momentum
All sectors are exhibiting significant strength, as policymakers seek to bridge economies to the hoped-for 2021 vaccine rollout.
September's Rich Pickings podcast: Allocating for recovery
"The market is underestimating inflation. Reduce duration and look for income," says Chief Investment Officer Steve Ellis, in this month's Rich Pickings.
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery
Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.
GEARs: Bursting through the ceiling?
Fidelity International’s GEAR (Gauges of Economic Activity in Real Time) activity indicators continue to rebound strongly.
Fidelity Leading Indicator points to weak recovery
Business sentiment and trade are improving, among signals of a fragile recovery, but consumer confidence and industrial orders lag.
The Fidelity Leading Indicator finds a floor
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
GEARs: China roars while the global economy snores
Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real time (GEARs), a proxy for three-month annualised growth, improved this month but remain in extreme hibernation.
FLI takes another leg down despite lockdowns easing
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly
Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction
China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction
FLI: Consumer pain leads the way
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
FLI: Consumer confidence holds up amid broad-based slowdown
For the first time in two years the Fidelity Leading Indicator cycle tracker signals both below-trend growth and deceleration.
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals slowing global growth as coronavirus impact looms
The economic impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak is only just beginning to be captured by the latest FLI reading.
US China Phase 1: Apocalypse Postponed
'Phase 1’ of the US- China trade pact reveals no credible path forward, so instead the two sides have chosen to stand still
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Still strong but approaching the limit
The Fidelity Leading Indicator's acceleration is circling back towards zero after a period of strong improvement.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Marginal cooling but still positive
The global economy is still expected to grow into 2020, but at a subdued pace
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Keeping the dream alive
The FLI is keeping the dream of a solid acceleration into 2020 alive, and points to the worst being in the rear-view mirror.
Global GEARs whisper stabilisation
Our global proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) are starting to appear convincing in their stabilisation.
Global GEAR suggests economy remains on weak footing
Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) is flat but there is plenty of divergence at the individual country level.
FLI: Surprisingly upbeat into Q4
The Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) showed firm improvement in September
Investment Outlook Q4 2019: Bending, not breaking
The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.
Global GEARs suggest stable and subdued activity, now near levels of recent troughs
Our Global GEAR, an unweighted average across all countries, nudged higher and is now dead flat year-to-date.
FLI: Another solid month indicates that global recession fears are overblown
Our Fidelity Leading Indicator boosts hopes that the worst is firmly behind us, and that the next move in global growth will be to the upside.
Fed Chair Powell strikes the right balance at Jackson Hole
Probability of December rate cut has increased.
Grit in the GEARs, but global economy not grinding to a halt
Some grit in the GEARs persists, especially in Europe and some emerging markets, but the global economy has yet to grind to a halt.
FLI: An 'uneasy' economic stabilisation ahead
The FLI suggests that even with the impending tariff escalation, we are far from a global recession
ECB signals further cuts and a new round of QE in September
The dovish outlook, coupled with prospects of a further stimulus, is expected to fuel the demand for yield that we have seen so far this year.
Investment Outlook Q3 2019: A delicate balance
The Investment Outlook is our flagship quarterly outlook publication that outlines our views on all the major asset classes and details the 'house view'.
GEARs: Lower for (how much) longer?
Our GEARs have slipped back, reversing the improvement seen in the second quarter.
China data improves but nascent recovery could halt further stimulus
Although the latest GDP figures show the worst may be behind us, there is no room for policy complacency.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Clinging to optimism
Our FLI cycle tracker indicates the global economy is past the worst
US-China G20 trade talks: “Back on track” to destination unknown
US-China G20 trade talks: “Back on track” to destination unknown
Fed flashes easing signals
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold as expected and also signaled that cuts - not hikes - are around the corner, amid signs of weakening economic activity.
Central bank fears, calmer GEARs?
Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) show the latest Global GEAR looks stable and decently above its recent lows.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Stronger data indicate a recovery
Improvement in global growth has been reassuringly broad-based
ECB takes a slightly more hawkish tone
The central bank however pushed back raising rates until at least mid-2020.
Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens
Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens
China’s April data disappoints market expectations of resilience
Data on industrial production, retail sales and investment all surprised to the downside.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Green shoots versus trade war shots
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Green shoots versus trade war shots
The Fed remains firmly on hold
The overall message at the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting was clear and simple - it is firmly on hold for now.
EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard
China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.
Amid China’s grab bag of economic data, surging credit growth will do the real work
A closer look at China’s first quarter GDP data reveals some mixed messages about the country’s economic performance.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: A sign of life?
Our leading indicator is at a crossroads
EM outlook: Easier conditions, tougher growth
After a challenging end to last year, the start of 2019 has brought some tentative stability to emerging markets. But it is too early to issue the all-clear.
Emerging market GEARs outperform sluggish Europe and Japan
Global GEARs suggest stability over the past two months, after a volatile end to 2018.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Red lights, not green shoots
Signs of more dovish central banks may have got markets more excited, but our FLI has not moved.
What does the US-China trade-talk extension mean for investors?
While headlines suggest that the US and China are inching closer to a deal, it’s clear that there are still a range of questions that need to be addressed.
GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown
GEAR update: US and Japan join the slowdown
Fidelity Leading Indicator: deeper drop, with no sector spared
The FLI Cycle Tracker plunged deeper into the bottom-left quadrant indicating growth below-trend and decelerating
Stuck in low GEAR
Absolute GEAR levels do not make for particularly pleasant reading. The DM average is hovering around its lowest since mid-2016.
Emerging Markets' glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it
Emerging Markets glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it
Choose your own adventure: China’s economic destiny
What does it mean for the rest of the world if in a decade's time China becomes the preeminent economic superpower, or gets stuck in the middle-income trap?
2019 China Outlook- Time to enter the tiger’s den?
We explore the opportunities in China equities and fixed income in 2019.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: FLIrting with disaster?
Perhaps ‘disaster’ is too strong a word to describe January’s Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) reading, but it is the worst result since 2012.
China and emerging market GEARs deteriorate in December
Emerging market economic indicators deteriorate in December
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Deceleration after frontloading on US tariff worries
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) now shows a deceleration trend, in contrast with the tentative stabilisation we had seen previously.
All eyes on Buenos Aires for make-or-break G20 summit
The odds of a truce or no deal at the G20 are balanced.
EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come
Risks remain to the downside for emerging markets due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.
Eurozone, China GEARs show deterioration in November
US GEAR continues its strong run, even as China is at its weakest since April 2015 while the UK is at its lowest level since the referendum result.
Fidelity Leading Indicator - hit by 'front-loading'?
Our FLI is still in the growth below trend and decelerating quadrant. We still have to assess the impact of 'front-loading' on any nascent positivity.
As the BOJ stealthily normalises, the yen will follow
The BOJ appears to be stealthily normalising while keeping rates extremely low. But small steps for Japan’s central bank could be big steps for its currency.
Emerging market GEARs weaken further in September
Our macro indicator shows emerging markets are under pressure
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Qualified optimism or qualified pessimism
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) is edging up towards the ‘top-left’ quadrant, which suggests that a trough could be approaching.
GEAR levels show exuberant US economy
Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.
September's Rich Pickings podcast: A world at the mercy of America
The US is playing an increasingly central role in world markets. Why does this matter?
Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker.
GEAR levels show US economic exuberance could continue into H2
Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) show that US GEAR levels of 4 per cent almost exactly matched the second quarter GDP print.
Emerging Markets outlook: Not out of the woods
Despite better data in June, the Fidelity Leading Indicator remains negative, especially in key EM-sensitive areas like global trade and commodities.
Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) remains in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker for the fourth straight month.
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