Overview
US on a downtrend
After resisting gravity for so long, our US GEAR seems to have well and truly rolled over. At 3 per cent, it is far from concerning - and well above what US GDP seems likely to print, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s ‘nowcast’ below 2 per cent. However, it is the weakest reading since November 2016, and the direction of travel is clearly downward. Meanwhile, Japan’s GEAR, which had also been surprisingly resilient, has plunged sharply into contractionary territory, at -0.7 per cent.
EM remains lacklustre
EM GEARs are less dramatic this month, but remain broadly weak, with the exception of a sudden surge in Brazil to 5.1 per cent. Korea continues to fall sharply, now 0.9 per cent, boding ill for the near-term, while Mexico and Turkey are stuck in contraction (-0.3 per cent and -2.7 per cent respectively). Due to the Lunar New Year we have been unable to meaningfully update the China GEAR after its dire end to 2018.
