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Outlook 2024: Four ways forward

By Richard Edgar Editor in Chief

Remarkable changes across economies and markets, combined with a year of political uncertainty, make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take, each assigned with its own probability.

Remarkable changes across economies and markets, combined with a year of political uncertainty, make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take, each assigned with its own probability.

Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward
Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward

Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.

The economy in 2024: Something will give
The economy in 2024: Something will give

If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.

Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case
Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case

A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.