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Chart Room: Why China is all aglitter over gold
China’s onshore gold price premium has expanded, spurring cross-border arbitrage and calling for stronger policy measures to shore up confidence.
Chart Room: China’s heavy machine makers dig deeper overseas
China’s machinery firms are making new inroads abroad, seeking profitability that’s built to last as demand falls and competition intensifies at home.
Chart Room: Building a bigger bloc of BRICS
With one country continuing to pull far more economic weight than everybody else, the significance of BRICS expansion will be more diplomatic than economic.
Chart Room: Taking stock of warehouse rents
Chart Room: Taking stock of warehouse rents
Chart Room: The Fed’s ‘blocked drain’ conundrum
Despite signs of inflation easing off its peak, interest rate hikes have yet to flow freely and fully throughout the system.
Chart Room: The return of 60/40?
Chart Room: The return of 60/40?
Chart Room: Why real estate location is only part of the answer to diversifying investments
Chart Room: Why real estate location is only part of the answer to diversifying investments
Chart Room: Cost deflation, China’s latest export
China’s undershooting post-pandemic recovery has stoked fears of deflation. Our Analyst Survey indicates that businesses are bracing for cost reductions.
Chart Room: EM and commodities have decoupled - but for how long?
The relationship between EMs and commodities has come under pressure. But a closer look at the two asset classes suggests that the old order could be restored.
Chart Room: Putting the high back into high yield
The era of ultra-low coupons in the European high yield bond market is coming to an end, but higher financing costs also means elevated risk for businesses
Chart Room: Why ‘work from anywhere’ doesn’t work everywhere
Our ESG Analyst Survey indicates that WFH is viewed favourably by most companies around the world. But there is one very big exception to the WFH trend: China.
Chart Room: Leveraged borrowers feel the squeeze as debt costs rise
Chart Room: Leveraged borrowers feel the squeeze as debt costs rise interest cost ratios
Chart Room: Credit markets focus again on fundamentals
Fidelity's model shows factors associated with credit fundamentals and valuations have contributed more than sentiment to investment returns since the pandemic
Chart Room: Easing Japan’s ‘June jam’ of shareholder meetings
The pile-up of annual general meetings at the end of June in Japan can be a pain for investors, but jams have been easing somewhat in a positive sign.
Chart Room: Shifting sands in China’s ESG landscape
Fidelity International's survey shows investors and customers are playing an increasingly important role in driving ESG strategies at Chinese companies.
Chart Room: Reopened for business, but now what?
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey shows a continued decrease in management sentiment, headlined by declines among Chinese companies.
Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache
The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.
Chart Room: Is ‘higher for longer’ the new normal for funding costs?
Chart Room: Is ‘higher for longer’ the new normal for funding costs?
Chart Room: A decade of growth, but a century of value
Value stocks delivered in 2022 after being overshadowed for a decade by a boom in tech. Can value extend its run during a less certain economic period?
Chart Room: Getting China’s youth back to work
The job prospects are still gloomy for young people in China, and the picture may get worse before it gets better.
Chart Room: What 80 years of data (and 11 recessions) say about today’s macro outlook
Historically, a tightening in financial conditions like the one that we have seen over the last year invariably led to a recession.
Chart Room: Will the renminbi’s stable attraction woo Asian partners?
While the market traditionally focuses on the renminbi’s performance against the US dollar, we think its relationship with Asian peers deserves more attention.
Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?
The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.
Chart Room: Technical bid buoys loan market as buyouts dry up
Chart Room: Technical bid buoys loan market as buyouts dry up
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Why fixed-asset investment is on the move in China
Investment remains a major driver of China’s economy, but priorities are shifting from property to manufacturing.
Chart Room: Earnings, not valuations, will carry China’s rebounding markets forward
Improving corporate earnings are likely to take over from cheap valuations as the main driver in the next stage of the Chinese stock market's rebound.
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
Chart Room: A hiring spree on the horizon in China
While much of the global economy appears at risk of recession, China is revving up a rebound that’s set to jumpstart the job market.
Chart Room: A regulatory cliff edge for unrentable European offices
Chart Room: A regulatory cliff edge for unrentable European offices
Chart Room: Employee welfare is still a priority
Companies’ recent push to focus on employee wellbeing is unlikely to fade, even as an economic downturn puts pressure on business
Chart Room: Rewriting the yen narrative
We think recent tweaks to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy could reset the narrative and pave the way for yen appreciation.
Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022
Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.
Chart Room: Credit markets look cautious to a (de)fault
Markets are pricing too much bad news into investment grade bonds, especially now that inflation appears to have peaked.
Chart Room: EVs plug into the mainstream in China
Chart Room: EVs plug into the mainstream in China
Chart Room: Falling US retail sales suggest inflation may have peaked
Real retail sales have fallen significantly since 2021. This suggests core inflation could be due to ease soon - and has almost certainly peaked.
Chart room: Leveraged loan market relatively resilient as downturn looms
Chart room: Leveraged loan market relatively resilient as downturn looms
Chart Room: Pressure mounts on yen as US yields soar
Japan's commitment to YCC puts it in a difficult position amid rising inflation. Were the BoJ to abandon YCC, the knock-on effects could be severe.
Europe’s unequal gas demand destruction
Europe is already reducing energy demand in response to record high prices. While shortages appear unlikely this winter, next year could be a different story.
Chart Room: US housing dip may hit sentiment hard
US real estate was at the centre of the financial crash in 2008. The US housing sector is back in focus again as unaffordability returns to peaks from 2005-7
Chart Room: As the energy crisis bites, occupiers see value in green buildings
Chart Room: As the energy crisis bites, occupiers see value in green buildings
Chart Room: The Fed walks a quantitative tightrope
The quantitative tightening of US financial conditions will inevitably strain parts of the banking system
Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time
Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time
Chart Room: What can governments do about Europe’s soaring energy bills?
How might governments in Europe seek to manage soaring energy bills?
Chart Room: A tricky market for CLOs prompts innovation
Chart Room: A tricky market for CLOs prompts innovation
Chart Room: The plunge in US consumer sentiment
The soaring cost of living has pushed US consumer sentiment to an all-time low.
Chart Room: Leveraged loan returns bounce back, but for how long?
Chart Room: Leveraged loan returns bounce back, but for how long?
Chart room: Inflation is broader, and stickier
Today’s inflation is different from that of a year ago. Now, inflation is spread across a much wider basket of components.
Chart Room: Global sentiment sinking fast
Fidelity International analysts detect growing signs of recession by year’s end.
The ingredients are there for a wage-price spiral
After the surge in inflation, will wages follow? Our analysts think they will.
Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation
Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation
Chart Room: Supercharged commodities spell a regime change for investing
Demand for real assets neglected in the pandemic could be set to surge as the world shifts to a new, sustainable paradigm, but there will also be more pain
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
Private debt does some heavy lifting in Twitter buyout
Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter is one of the most talked about leveraged buyouts of the decade, utilising both public and private debt markets.
Chart Room: Three structural factors making for stickier inflation
We don't expect global inflation rates to remain at today's levels, but we see several medium-term factors that should keep upward pressure on inflation.
Chart Room: US yield curve could steepen further out
We are sceptical of the economic scenarios implied by the current pricing of the medium and long parts of the US yield curve.
Chart Room: Pole position for China’s electric autos
Despite rising materials costs, supply bottlenecks, and cloudy global macro conditions, China’s electric vehicle sector still looks charged for growth.
Direct lenders take a larger chunk of smaller loan deals
Direct lenders are funding a growing proportion of the European mid-market, with the smallest deals seeing the biggest rise.
Chart Room: Long-term tailwinds still in play for renewables
The current pressure on Europe to break its dependency on Russian gas has strengthened the long-term need for green infrastructure.
Chart Room: Ukraine war adds to inflation and brings further supply chain woes
As the appalling human cost of the war in Ukraine continues to grow, the knock-on effects for the global economy are also becoming clearer.
Chart Room: Russia’s war in Ukraine is making metals more precious at any price
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing severe disruption to European commodity markets, exacerbating low inventories and threatening outright shortages.
Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations
Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.
Chart Room: Rising rates aren’t always bad for ‘low vol’ strategies
Rising bond yields don’t automatically mean bad news for low volatility strategies; understanding why requires a closer look at each cycle of rate increases.
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
Chart Room: Covid recovery tops the list of themes for 2022
Latest survey of Fidelity analysts reveals companies' key concerns for the next 12 months.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
Chart Room: Electric carmakers to outstrip ICEs by mid 2020s
The number of electric vehicle manufacturers is expected to overtake the number of companies making cars of the gas-guzzling variety by the mid 2020s.
Chart Room: 2021’s long goodbye to transitory inflation
Five charts that show the inflationary impact of 2021’s reopening cycle
Chart Room: Fidelity quant indicator points to risk off
Fidelity’s Risk Aversion Indicator has quickly moved higher over the past few weeks and now recommends taking risk off the table.
Chart Room: When it pays to consider low volatility strategies
In the face of a riskier macro environment, strategies designed to minimise volatility may find their time to shine.
Chart Room: The REIT way to invest as private real estate evolves
The way we use buildings is changing. Publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) show how private property funds may be set to evolve in response.
Chart Room: What policies will push companies towards net zero?
The carrot is more effective than the stick, according to a survey of Fidelity International analysts.
Chart Room: Net zero needs decarbonisation solutions
A chasm remains between government plans to cut emissions and the shared goal of net zero by 2050. Nascent decarbonisation solutions may help bridge the gap.
Chart Room: A 100-year view of inflation and asset returns
Long run inflation data show equities and bonds both perform better when inflation is falling. But what about today’s world of persistent price rises?
Chart Room: Net zero puts oil on a rollercoaster ride
The race to decarbonise is constraining investment in long-cycle energy projects.
Chart Room: Digging into China’s GDP growth
A sharp decline in excavator utilisation reflects China’s property-and-infrastructure-induced slowdown, but it also boosts the case for strong policy response.
Chart Room: Fidelity Leading Indicator points to contraction
After a summer slowdown, the latest Fidelity Leading Indicator is forecasting a tougher winter.
Chart Room: Is inflation here to stay?
Companies face a mix of transitory and structural inflationary pressures, according to Fidelity International’s latest analyst survey.
Chart Room: The kitchen gets hotter for China’s gadget makers
Demographics are weighing on China’s kitchen appliance segment, but competition is heating up at the higher end of the market.
Chart Room: The energy rally could run out of steam
Oil and natural gas prices could start to moderate as the outlook for demand weakens and supply looks set to increase.
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts temper expectations for margin growth
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey suggests that the outlook for margins is moderating from elevated levels.
Chart Room: An inflection point for Chinese equities?
There may be pressure on valuations as international investors adopt a wait-and-see approach, but the long-term outlook continues to be positive.
Chart Room: US restaurants devour record receipts amid rebound
A resurgent desire to eat out has propelled monthly US restaurant sales above pre-pandemic levels. Despite challenges, we see a long runway of recovery ahead.
Chart Room: India eyes a bigger slice of export markets
Rapid income growth means more Indian households are buying their first mod cons, while government policies aim to turn India into a major exporter of them.
Chart Room: A pain in the bottleneck for supply chains
There are tentative signs that substantial supply chain bottlenecks in the US are starting to ease.
Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve
The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.
Chart Room: Sentiment moderates amid rising costs and slower growth
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey reveals that the outlook for management sentiment is moderating as costs continue to rise.
Chart Room: Gimme shelter (from inflation)
Shelter inflation continues to hold the key for forecasting inflation pressure in the US.
Chart Room: The value rally has further to go
Chart Room: The value rally has further to go
Chart Room: Why stock-bond correlations are turning positive
In the wake of Covid-19, US tech and consumer discretionary firms are leading a departure from the negative correlation between equities and bonds.
Chart Room: Emerging market currencies left behind as commodity prices soar
The close relationship between commodity prices and emerging market currency returns has broken down this year.
Chart Room: What Japan’s digital transformation means for markets
After years as relative laggards, Japanese companies are diving headfirst into DX, or digital transformation, and investors should take notice.
Chart Room: Which sectors are most proactive in the race to net zero?
Companies need to be proactive about decarbonising if they are to survive - and flourish - in a net zero economy.
Chart Room: The crisis and opportunity in recycling single-use plastics
Production of single-use plastics is forecast to continue rising for the next decade-plus, and investment opportunities will depend greatly on recycling.
Chart Room: Stronger for longer for China’s renminbi?
Expectations for further renminbi appreciation have risen, but we think short-term gains could be capped from here.
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect inflationary pressures to keep rising for now
Inflationary pressures are picking up, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.
Chart Room: China’s EV industry is charged for growth
The combination of falling battery costs and rising adoption rates means China's EV industry is charged for growth.
Chart Room: An uneven supercycle for commodities?
Most commodity prices have been strong this year, spurring talk of a potential supercycle. But the returns could be more dispersed from here.
Chart Room: Rapid reopening drives inflation higher
US headline consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in 13 years due to positive base effects, rising energy prices and the reopening of the economy.
Chart Room: The rapid rise of digital payments in India
The technological transformation of India’s economy has accelerated in recent years, as can clearly be seen in the accelerating shift to digital transactions.
Chart Room: Why dividends make sense in an inflationary environment
History shows how dividend-focused investment strategies can provide sustainable income in a reflationary environment.
Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish
China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.
Chart Room: Equity volatility eases as Treasury yields rise
The VIX has fallen below a key technical level, suggesting a new wave of investor optimism.
Chart Room: EM outperformance could be sustained, if commodities are a guide
This week’s Chart Room shows the historical correlation of EM equities with commodities, which suggests that the breakout could be sustained.
Chart Room: Energy and industrials sectors to bounce back in 2021
Revenue growth this year could be strongest in the sectors worst affected by Covid-19, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.
Chart Room: Retail investors pile into the fastest growing stocks
Retail investors' market participation is extreme not only in volume, but also concentration.
Chart Room: A Goldilocks spot for inflation-linked bonds
We see a sweet spot in inflation-linked bonds with maturities ranging from 1 year to 10 years.
Chart Room: Corporate ESG focus reverts to pre-Covid priorities
An economic rebound could bring with it a reversion to pre-pandemic priorities in environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
Reflation revives outlook for UK equities
Signs of reflation are sparking hopes that UK equities will benefit from a vaccine-led reopening of the economy.
Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt
Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.
Chart Room: Keep an eye on housing rents when tracking inflation
Some key considerations make us more constructive on US rents for the year ahead, particularly soaring home purchase prices.
Chart Room: Risk-on and on, with caveats
Caution and careful positioning are important from here, based on the latest readings from Fidelity’s risk aversion indicator.
Chart Room: Emerging markets and the reopening trade
Emerging EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and Latin American stocks are particularly well positioned to reap the benefits of reopening.
Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?
In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.
Chart Room: After the Gold Rush
Is it time to take profits in gold?
Chart Room: A liquidity tide for the record books
2020 brought us new high-water marks in the US for both money supply growth and the personal savings rate.
Chart Room: Chinese stocks, playing catchup, finally retrace 2015 highs
But the rally in China’s main onshore index still lags its US and global counterparts.
Chart Room: China government bond yields catch their breath
Chart Room: China government bond yields catch their breath
Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm
Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.
Chart Room: Deploying the fiscal firehose
Chart Room: Deploying the fiscal firehose
Chart Room: Oil vs gold - two sides of the reopening trade
Chart Room: Oil vs gold - two sides of the reopening trade
Chart Room: Asia’s export engine supercharged by new trade deal
Chart Room: Asia’s export engine supercharged by new trade deal
Chart Room: The clear link between ESG and returns
How have stocks that scored high for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors held up amid the Covid-19 fallout?
Chart Room: Some sectors may be set for a margin squeeze
The latest reading from our monthly analyst survey shows which companies are struggling with inflationary pressure but also weaker pricing power.
Chart Room: Correlations boil and bubble 🎃 and may spell toil and trouble 🦇
In this follow-up special Halloween edition of Chart Room, we look at how correlations are casting a spell over markets.
Chart Room: Government debt climbs to spooky heights
In this special Halloween edition Chart Room (part 1 of 2), we look at the frightening levels of government debt around the world.
Chart Room: Why growth still has room to grow in China equities
The valuation premium for China growth stocks versus value stocks hit a new all-time high, lifted by the consumer, tech and healthcare sectors.
Chart room: European cyclicals vulnerable if manufacturing data moderates
Any moderation in the growth of new manufacturing orders could make cyclicals vulnerable to a de-rating.
Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?
In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?
Chart Room: Why some tech valuations may be lower than you think
A closer look at longer-term valuations reveals some surprising trends in tech.
Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks
EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.
Chart Room: China’s Covid rebound puts the ‘V’ in investment
Fixed asset investment (FAI) in China has recovered to its pre-Covid levels of growth, with infrastructure and property driving the nation’s broader economy.
Chart Room: The resilience of China’s onshore stocks
China’s onshore stocks (A-shares) have outperformed their Hong Kong and overseas listed counterparts, but their valuations are relatively undemanding.
Chart Room: A new record high for US stocks, but mind the lopsided valuations
The average European bank capital ratio has never been stronger. This has led to a stark contrast in returns across bank capital structures.
Chart Room: US debt delinquencies drop, but recession looms as unemployment surges
Household debt forbearance measures have given a temporary boost to borrowers in the US. But as unemployment surges, more supportive measures will be needed.
Chart Room: European banks’ CoCo bonds soar while equities slump
The average European bank capital ratio has never been stronger. This has led to a stark contrast in returns across bank capital structures.
A heavy outlook for the US Dollar
The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.
Chart Room: Robots on the rise in a post-Covid world
We think factory automation will accelerate further in a post-Covid world, as machines don’t get sick and can work continuously excluding maintenance.
Chart Room: Why China government bonds have underperformed other markets
China government bond yields are diverging from other major government bond markets.
Chart Room: Chinese consumers’ growing preference for local brands
The Covid-19 experience is spurring changes in behavior among Chinese consumers. Among these is a growing preference for domestic brands over foreign ones.
Chart Room: Asian equities diverge, creating opportunities
The difference in performance between equity markets in East Asia and South Asia (India, ASEAN nations) is the largest in nearly 15 years.
Chart room: Despite a recent rally, high yield bonds still look cheap
For US high yield, valuations look historically cheap on a relative basis - especially when compared to equities.
Chart room: Another false dawn for value stocks?
Over the past decade, previous periods of value outperformance have been short-lived. Will this time be different?
Chart Room: QE expectations vs. reality, market moves
Market expectations of future asset purchases by the Fed have an even greater influence than the purchases themselves.
Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly
Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.
Chart Room: Beware the narrowing market
Equity market performance is now at its narrowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, with the rally riding on a dwindling number of large-cap growth stocks.
Chart Room: What in the world is going on with gold?
The correlation between gold and equities has increased to an 18-month high, calling into question the metal’s usual benefit as a porfolio diversifier.
Chart Room: More policy easing supports China bonds
This week’s Chart Room shows how ample liquidity is helping China’s onshore bond markets navigate around global volatility.
Chart room: Beauty of big tech stocks is in the eye of the beholder
Our latest Chart Room takes a comparative look at the long run up in the Nasdaq 100 index.
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19
Chart room: Governments open their fiscal taps
Doing "whatever it takes".
Chart room: The dash for dollars
Currency basis swap rates reflect dollar liquidity squeeze.
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