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Anthony Doyle
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Government debt climbs to spooky heights

In this special Halloween edition Chart Room (part 1 of 2), we look at the frightening levels of government debt around the world.

Anthony Doyle + 2 others | 22 October 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Why growth still has room to grow in China equities

The valuation premium for China growth stocks versus value stocks hit a new all-time high, lifted by the consumer, tech and healthcare sectors.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 15 October 2020

Louise Fribourg
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator shows record short-term growth momentum

All sectors are exhibiting significant strength, as policymakers seek to bridge economies to the hoped-for 2021 vaccine rollout.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 9 October 2020

Natalie Briggs
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: European cyclicals vulnerable if manufacturing data moderates

Any moderation in the growth of new manufacturing orders could make cyclicals vulnerable to a de-rating.

Natalie Briggs + 2 others | 8 October 2020

Charlotte Harington
Blog 3 min read

Swinging 60s inflation pattern due a comeback

The years between 1964-75, a time of fiscal expansion and low rates, shows why inflation might come back faster than some think.

Charlotte Harington | 7 October 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?

In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 24 September 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks

EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 September 2020

Louise Fribourg
Blog 1 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery

Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.

Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 8 September 2020

Crystal Cui
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: China’s Covid rebound puts the ‘V’ in investment

Fixed asset investment (FAI) in China has recovered to its pre-Covid levels of growth, with infrastructure and property driving the nation’s broader economy.

Crystal Cui + 3 others | 3 September 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

GEARs: Bursting through the ceiling?

Fidelity International’s GEAR (Gauges of Economic Activity in Real Time) activity indicators continue to rebound strongly.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 August 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

A heavy outlook for the US Dollar

The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 30 July 2020

Hyomi Jie
Article 4 min read

With nowhere to go, Chinese tourists spend closer to home

Most travel destinations remain off-limits, and as Chinese people’s savings have increased, so has their pent-up demand and desire to treat themselves.

Hyomi Jie + 2 others | 28 July 2020

Tigran Manukyan
Article 3 min read

Using gold to hedge an extreme world

Gold can act as a useful hedge against future financial distress and potential selloffs in risk assets

Tigran Manukyan | 27 July 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Article 12 min read

Fidelity CIO Outlook Q3: Nearing the limit

Markets will struggle to surpass second quarter rebound.

Andrew McCaffery + 4 others | 27 July 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 3 min read

Landmark EU deal may lead to better economic outcomes

EU Recovery Fund marks new chapter for Union.

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 21 July 2020

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Why China government bonds have underperformed other markets

China government bond yields are diverging from other major government bond markets.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 15 July 2020

Hyomi Jie
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Chinese consumers’ growing preference for local brands

The Covid-19 experience is spurring changes in behavior among Chinese consumers. Among these is a growing preference for domestic brands over foreign ones.

Hyomi Jie + 2 others | 9 July 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Asian equities diverge, creating opportunities

The difference in performance between equity markets in East Asia and South Asia (India, ASEAN nations) is the largest in nearly 15 years.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 2 July 2020

Toby Gibb
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: US employment may have begun to recover, but there’s a long way to go

Employment has plunged to a deeper trough in 2020 than in previous recessions

Toby Gibb + 1 other | 25 June 2020

Aditya Khowala
Article 4 min read

Elections in the time of coronavirus and recession

Elections in the time of coronavirus and recession

Aditya Khowala | 23 June 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

GEARs: China roars while the global economy snores

Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real time (GEARs), a proxy for three-month annualised growth, improved this month but remain in extreme hibernation.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 2 min read

Chart room: Despite a recent rally, high yield bonds still look cheap

For US high yield, valuations look historically cheap on a relative basis - especially when compared to equities.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 18 June 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Article 6 min read

Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices

Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices

Anna Stupnytska | 12 June 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: Another false dawn for value stocks?

Over the past decade, previous periods of value outperformance have been short-lived. Will this time be different?

Stuart Rumble + 3 others | 11 June 2020

Nicholas Price
Article 2 min read

Japanification in 12 charts

Many western economies are mirroring Japan’s experience over the past 30 years.These 12 charts show how some of the key trends are playing out.

Nicholas Price + 3 others | 9 June 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: QE expectations vs. reality, market moves

Market expectations of future asset purchases by the Fed have an even greater influence than the purchases themselves.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 4 June 2020

Eric Wong
Article 5 min read

Central banks in emerging markets hop on the bond-buying bandwagon

EM central bankers are taking a page from the developed-market playbook and purchasing local bonds as a way to cushion the blow

Eric Wong + 4 others | 29 May 2020

Ian Samson
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly

Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.

Ian Samson + 2 others | 28 May 2020

Jing Ning
Blog 3 min read

China again primes growth with infrastructure investment

With exports expected to slump and consumption still struggling to fully recover, China is turning to a familiar playbook - infrastructure spending.

Jing Ning | 25 May 2020

Martin Dropkin
Article 4 min read

Fidelity International Pulse Survey: Society’s big moment

Fidelity International's May survey of 145 analysts found that the Covid-19 crisis is focusing companies' attention on social issues.

Martin Dropkin + 2 others | 18 May 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery

The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 12 May 2020

Amit Goel
Article 4 min read

How India’s economy is navigating Covid-19

As the world begins to come out of lockdowns and economies normalise, India can offer bright spots for emerging market investors.

Amit Goel + 4 others | 7 May 2020

Tina Tian
Article 4 min read

China’s tourists step out again

Over 100 million travellers in China hit the road over the five-day May Day holiday, the first big test for tourism since lockdowns started being lifted.

Tina Tian + 5 others | 7 May 2020

Anne Richards
Article 4 min read

“Just in case” and the case for conditionality

This crisis has shown us that contingency planning is as important as risk mitigation and supply chain optimisation.

Anne Richards | 7 May 2020

Joseph Zhang
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: What in the world is going on with gold?

The correlation between gold and equities has increased to an 18-month high, calling into question the metal’s usual benefit as a porfolio diversifier.

Joseph Zhang + 2 others | 7 May 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: More policy easing supports China bonds

This week’s Chart Room shows how ample liquidity is helping China’s onshore bond markets navigate around global volatility.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 29 April 2020

Alvin Cheng
Article 4 min read

A shelter from the storm, for now: China’s bond market set to open further

When global fixed income investors scrambled for cover last month, China’s onshore bond market was a rare haven with low volatility and no liquidity crunch.

Alvin Cheng + 5 others | 23 April 2020

Amit Lodha
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: Beauty of big tech stocks is in the eye of the beholder

Our latest Chart Room takes a comparative look at the long run up in the Nasdaq 100 index.

Amit Lodha + 2 others | 23 April 2020

James Trafford
Article 2 min read

Oil below zero: bad, but not that bad

Oil fundamentals are weak - but Monday’s price move should be seen as an outlier.

James Trafford | 21 April 2020

Paras Anand
Article 4 min read

China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction

China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction

Paras Anand + 3 others | 17 April 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Blog 5 min read

Fidelity CIO: Possible economic scenarios

Challenges lie ahead for the global economy.

Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 16 April 2020

George Watson
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19

Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19

George Watson + 2 others | 16 April 2020

Adnan Siddique
Blog 2 min read

Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support

Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support

Adnan Siddique | 9 April 2020

Ming Gong
Blog 4 min read

Delayed demand making its return to China’s property market

New home sales are recovering faster than expected in China. This has big implications for domestic demand and the macroeconomic outlook.

Ming Gong + 2 others | 8 April 2020

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Blog 3 min read

Spiking US unemployment could unleash a cascade of systemic risks

The unprecedented rise in US unemployment has the potential to set off a chain of events that could destabilize already fragile markets.

Wen-Wen Lindroth | 8 April 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Blog 3 min read

Crisis drives shift in public/private relationship not seen since WWII

State aid for companies is likely to come with conditions attached.

Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 8 April 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

FLI: Consumer pain leads the way

The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 April 2020

Adnan Siddique
Blog 1 min read

Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming

Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming

Adnan Siddique | 2 April 2020

Edith Chan
Blog 1 min read

Edith Chan + 2 others | 2 April 2020

Peter May
Blog 2 min read

What recent market moves imply about the US economic outlook

We take a look at 20 years of data to estimate the hit to the US economy being priced in by equity and credit markets.

Peter May | 1 April 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Blog 3 min read

Fidelity CIOs: A new paradigm

The Covid crisis is accelerating changes already underway.

Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 1 April 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Macro briefing: Heavyweight policies launched but more may be required

Macro briefing: Heavyweight policies launched but more may be required

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 26 March 2020

Paras Anand
Blog 2 min read

Not business as usual

Global health, monetary and fiscal policy are converging to triage the worst impacts of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak, but they come with a cost.

Paras Anand | 26 March 2020

Ben Li
Blog 3 min read

A cautious consumer rebound takes hold in China

Chinese consumers are offering a ray of hope in the economic wreckage from the Covid-19 coronavirus

Ben Li + 3 others | 26 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Massive US fiscal package needs effective implementation

A rescue package for ‘Main Street’ has been agreed. This far-reaching deal unlocks funds to support the US economy, but implementation is crucial.

Anna Stupnytska | 25 March 2020

Steve Ellis
Blog 4 min read

Fidelity CIOs: Dollar devaluation could be the end game from Fed actions

Fiscal and monetary stimulus could weaken the dollar and be inflationary.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 25 March 2020

Fidelity International
Blog 3 min read

China and its neighbours reboot supply chains

As China’s economy emerges from lockdown, activity across Asia’s sprawling network of factories, ports and logistics hubs is picking up.

Fidelity International + 1 other | 23 March 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Blog 4 min read

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 20 March 2020

Aditya Khowala
Blog 3 min read

Why the coronavirus crisis is more like 1918 than 2008

Why the coronavirus crisis is more like 1918 than 2008

Aditya Khowala | 18 March 2020

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 4 min read

Bank of Japan’s coordinated easing signals more proactive asset purchases

Today’s move by the Bank of Japan to boost asset purchases underscores a globally coordinated effort by central banks to contain the coronavirus fallout.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 16 March 2020

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

China gets back to business

How fast and how fully activity recovers in China will have huge implications for one of the world’s key economic growth engines.

Bryan Collins | 13 March 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

FLI: Consumer confidence holds up amid broad-based slowdown

For the first time in two years the Fidelity Leading Indicator cycle tracker signals both below-trend growth and deceleration.

Ian Samson | 10 March 2020

Andrew McCaffery
Video 9 min watch

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 10 March 2020

James Trafford
Blog 2 min read

A supply and demand shock for oil markets

Expectations of a demand shock due to the Covid-19 coronavirus collided with an anticipated supply surge after OPEC+ had a major fallout over production cuts.

James Trafford | 8 March 2020

Tina Tian
Blog 4 min read

Outbreak deepens China’s e-commerce push

While the coronavirus threatens to put a dent in China’s overall growth, pockets of the online economy are booming.

Tina Tian + 1 other | 2 March 2020

Ario Emami Nejad
Blog 3 min read

Europe catches coronavirus: Inside the market sell-off

European equity and debt markets flipped from exuberance to pessimism after the coronavirus spread to Northern Italy.

Ario Emami Nejad + 2 others | 26 February 2020

Paras Anand
Blog 2 min read

When the playbook stops working

Why did markets wait so long to sell off in the wake of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak?

Paras Anand | 24 February 2020

Paras Anand
Article 4 min read

A growing chasm

Optimism over a trade truce between the US and China is premature. Investors should be prepared for divergence in key areas.

Paras Anand | 12 February 2020

Romain Boscher
Blog 4 min read

Coronavirus: the impact on our global economic outlook

Global growth shock in a world of limited policy tools.

Romain Boscher + 3 others | 10 February 2020

Richard Edgar
Video 5 min watch

Cool Heads: Coronavirus

Markets respond to liquidity injection, but longer-term impact remains unclear.

Richard Edgar | 4 February 2020

Lynda Zhou
Blog 4 min read

China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus

China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.

Lynda Zhou + 1 other | 4 February 2020

Fidelity International
Article 6 min read

Coronavirus: Sector impacts and lessons from SARS

Online businesses typically faring better than offline.

Fidelity International | 31 January 2020

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Article 3 min read

Fed prolongs expansion for those left behind

Fed funds rate remains unchanged amid strong labour market.

Wen-Wen Lindroth + 1 other | 29 January 2020

Fidelity International
Article 3 min read

Coronavirus impact: Fund manager views from Asia

Our fund managers give their views on the possible short- and long-term implications of this outbreak for investors.

Fidelity International | 29 January 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

US China Phase 1: Apocalypse Postponed

'Phase 1’ of the US- China trade pact reveals no credible path forward, so instead the two sides have chosen to stand still

Ian Samson | 16 January 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Still strong but approaching the limit

The Fidelity Leading Indicator's acceleration is circling back towards zero after a period of strong improvement.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 14 January 2020

Fidelity International
Video 6 min watch

Cool Heads: UK election result positive for markets, but not a game changer

The Conservatives have won the UK election, making Brexit more likely. Markets have rallied on the news, but longer-term implications remain unclear.

Fidelity International | 13 December 2019

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Blog 2 min read

Rates unchanged as Fed engineers soft landing

The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged as Chairman Jerome Powell says US economy is 'in a good place'

Wen-Wen Lindroth | 11 December 2019

Fidelity International
Article 2 min read

Cool Heads: Investors are getting climate change wrong

Assessing a portfolio's climate pathway, rather than its emissions relative to a benchmark, should help reduce overall emissions.

Fidelity International | 3 December 2019

Ian Samson
Article 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: Keeping the dream alive

The FLI is keeping the dream of a solid acceleration into 2020 alive, and points to the worst being in the rear-view mirror.

Ian Samson | 26 November 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Global GEARs whisper stabilisation

Our global proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) are starting to appear convincing in their stabilisation.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 November 2019

Nicholas Price
Blog 2 min read

Labour shortages and ageing populations create opportunities for Japan's tech firms

Japan's technology sector offers companies that can grow across cycles by capitalising on labour shortages and other structural changes.

Nicholas Price | 4 November 2019

Fidelity International
Video 5 min watch

Cool Heads: where next for sterling?

Tim Foster says the pound could benefit from a more positive UK outlook.

Fidelity International | 23 October 2019

Paul Greer
Blog 2 min read

Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt

When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.

Paul Greer + 3 others | 15 October 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

FLI: Surprisingly upbeat into Q4

The Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) showed firm improvement in September

Ian Samson | 9 October 2019

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Blog 2 min read

Mounting risks in 2020, despite central banks’ best efforts

Mounting risks in 2020, despite central banks’ best efforts. Investors should be ready in case as the macroeconomic and political environments evolve.

Wen-Wen Lindroth | 4 October 2019

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform

While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.

Alvin Cheng + 2 others | 2 October 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Global GEARs suggest stable and subdued activity, now near levels of recent troughs

Our Global GEAR, an unweighted average across all countries, nudged higher and is now dead flat year-to-date.

Ian Samson | 20 September 2019

James Trafford
Blog 2 min read

Risk premium rises after attack on Saudi oil hobbles global supply

US sanctions on Iran could be more severe.

James Trafford + 1 other | 16 September 2019

Bob Chen

In 14 charts: China's unprecedented growth

China's unprecedented economic change in manufacturing and services has seen the country leapfrog its rivals in areas such as transport and mobile payments.

Bob Chen + 2 others | 16 September 2019

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 3 min read

Despite macro challenges, pockets of resilience in Chinese corporate earnings

Some bright spots in recent earnings reports suggest interesting opportunities

George Efstathopoulos + 1 other | 4 September 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Grit in the GEARs, but global economy not grinding to a halt

Some grit in the GEARs persists, especially in Europe and some emerging markets, but the global economy has yet to grind to a halt.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 21 August 2019

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

Is seven an unlucky number for China’s currency?

China’s renminbi weakened past the seven per US dollar mark for the first time in more than ten years.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 5 August 2019

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 1 min read

Trump ratchets up US-China trade war with new tariffs

Donald Trump announced on Twitter this week that he plans to add new import tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese-made products

George Efstathopoulos | 2 August 2019

Oscar Hutchinson
Blog 3 min read

Seeing red: How long can the iron ore rally last?

Seeing red: How long can the iron ore rally last?

Oscar Hutchinson | 24 July 2019

Oscar Hutchinson
Blog 2 min read

Gold still has space to shine on

We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.

Oscar Hutchinson | 17 July 2019

Terrence Pang
Article 2 min read

China’s hunger for 17m tons of pork benefits Brazil

China may have to import up to 17 million tons of pork to fill a production gap caused by African Swine Fever.

Terrence Pang + 1 other | 4 July 2019

Jing Ning
Blog 2 min read

With US-China trade talks back on track, investors’ focus turns to China economy

With US-China trade talks back on track, investors’ focus turns to China economy

Jing Ning + 3 others | 2 July 2019

Vincent Li
Blog 3 min read

Should investors hedge against big market moves now?

With all the uncertainty about the global economic outlook, investors ask whether it's time to add protection against volatility to their portfolios.

Vincent Li + 1 other | 28 June 2019

Jeremy Ocansey
Blog 4 min read

US-China trade wars: What to expect from the G20

US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to hold an informal meeting at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28-29.

Jeremy Ocansey | 25 June 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

Central bank fears, calmer GEARs?

Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) show the latest Global GEAR looks stable and decently above its recent lows.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens

Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens

Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 May 2019

Takashi Maruyama
Article 4 min read

From Heisei to Reiwa: Record-long market holiday heralds Japan’s new Imperial era

From Heisei to Reiwa: Record-long market holiday heralds Japan’s new Imperial era

Takashi Maruyama + 1 other | 26 April 2019

Forest Shultz
Blog 2 min read

China’s stimulus is working, but credit markets hold longer-term risks

The credit stimulus measures that China began last summer are starting to reach a critical mass, but transmission to the real economy remains patchy.

Forest Shultz + 4 others | 18 April 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Amid China’s grab bag of economic data, surging credit growth will do the real work

A closer look at China’s first quarter GDP data reveals some mixed messages about the country’s economic performance.

Ian Samson | 18 April 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: A sign of life?

Our leading indicator is at a crossroads

Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 April 2019

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

A Goldilocks moment for China’s monetary policy, but watch for more easing and bond index inclusion

Two events are driving the outlook for China fixed income- easing monetary conditions and the expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in benchmark indexes.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 14 March 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 3 min read

Macro slowdown clashes with market optimism

The disconnect between economic fundamentals and markets is unlikely to be sustainable in the short term.

Anna Stupnytska | 28 February 2019

Paul Greer
Article 4 min read

Emerging market investors should make hay while the sun shines

Investors are returning to emerging markets after a traumatic 2018, led by a weaker dollar and China stimulus

Paul Greer | 19 February 2019

Bob Chen

In nine charts: the world in 2029

The next decade provides new opportunities for travel and tech businesses, but also challenges in the form of increased risks to the environment.

Bob Chen + 1 other | 14 January 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 5 min read

Emerging Markets' glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it

Emerging Markets glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it

Ian Samson | 14 January 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Article 10 min read

Choose your own adventure: China’s economic destiny

What does it mean for the rest of the world if in a decade's time China becomes the preeminent economic superpower, or gets stuck in the middle-income trap?

Anna Stupnytska + 4 others | 11 January 2019

Lisa Twaronite
Bibliography 8 min read

What the rest of the world is predicting for 2029

Forecasters offer us glimpses of the world in 2029 - and yes, it will have more robots.

Lisa Twaronite | 11 January 2019

Richard Edgar
Podcast 26 min listen

Podcast: The world in 2029

What could global markets look like in 2029? How will the way we invest change in the future? And why shifts in social norms might affect our approaches.

Richard Edgar + 1 other | 11 January 2019

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 4 min read

2019 China Outlook- Time to enter the tiger’s den?

We explore the opportunities in China equities and fixed income in 2019.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 January 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Price moderation is an encouraging sign in the global housing market

Price moderation in some overvalued housing markets is an encouraging sign, as it is due mostly to supply-side policy measures rather than weakness in demand.

Anna Stupnytska | 13 December 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come

Risks remain to the downside for emerging markets due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.

Ian Samson | 28 November 2018

Jing Ning
Blog 2 min read

The opportunities in China's mixed-bag economy

Despite dismal headlines, China's real economy is more of a mixed bag. Corporates are focusing on shareholder returns and valuations have retreated from peaks.

Jing Ning | 27 November 2018

Randy Cutler
Blog 2 min read

Oil prices: What's the story?

Oil has plummeted since early October. Political manoeuvring and technical selling are exacerbating the decline, and the sell-off is likely to be overdone.

Randy Cutler | 25 November 2018

Paras Anand
Blog 1 min read

Midterms could be good for the US economy

Midterms could be good for the US economy

Paras Anand | 7 November 2018

Ned Salter
Article 10 min read

Profiting from demographics: exploiting investment opportunities in a slow-moving world

The impact of demographic trends on companies, industries and entire economies, is a powerful tool when it comes to making profitable investment decisions.

Ned Salter + 6 others | 30 October 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Emerging market GEARs weaken further in September

Our macro indicator shows emerging markets are under pressure

Ian Samson + 1 other | 17 October 2018

David Simner
Blog 1 min read

The Italian government surprises markets with plan to increase budget deficit

The Italian government threw down a gauntlet to the European Commission by announcing a spending-prone budget that defied expectations.

David Simner + 1 other | 28 September 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 1 min read

GEAR levels show exuberant US economy

Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.

Ian Samson + 1 other | 25 September 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker.

Ian Samson | 12 September 2018

Paras Anand
Blog 2 min read

Ten years since the crisis: the risks have changed

Investors and policy makers have learned their lessons, but we may be looking in the wrong direction for the next dislocations.

Paras Anand | 31 August 2018

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 2 min read

The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing

The Bank of Japan kept its easy monetary policy while tweaking its framework to give itself more flexibility, emphasising that normalisation is nowhere near.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 31 July 2018

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

Credit markets react to China's new easing measures

China’s emphasis on deleveraging has softened in recent months, but credit flow to the economy has remained weak.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 27 July 2018

Eric Wong
Blog 8 min read

Revisiting the 'Fragile Five' at five

Five years since they were dubbed the 'Fragile Five', the emerging market economies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey look more robust.

Eric Wong + 1 other | 24 July 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 3 min read

Emerging Markets outlook: Not out of the woods

Despite better data in June, the Fidelity Leading Indicator remains negative, especially in key EM-sensitive areas like global trade and commodities.

Ian Samson | 19 July 2018

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising

Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) remains in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker for the fourth straight month.

Ian Samson | 16 July 2018

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 3 min read

US-China trade tensions ratchet up

The US has launched another round of tariffs on exports from China, sparking market jitters. But there are reasons to be positive on Chinese equities.

George Efstathopoulos | 11 July 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 3 min read

The changing nature of inflation

What does lower inflation for longer mean for the future dynamics of inflation indicators

Anna Stupnytska | 14 December 2017

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