Overview
Analyst Survey 2025 (full report)
Eight years on from his first inauguration as president, the global companies that Fidelity International’s analysts cover believe Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House will have more impact than last time. Yet there are also expectations of a real improvement in the value of a number of sectors, driven chiefly by hopes for a surge in corporate mergers.
Those are the headline conclusions about the new administration in the US from our annual survey of 112 Fidelity analysts who watch and meet regularly with the world’s biggest companies with a view to investing in them. Geopolitics and the fallout from November’s election feature heavily.
Chart 1: More impact than 2017
What impact are your companies expecting from Trump’s presidency over the next two years?
Chart shows percentage of analysts responding to the question “What impact are your companies expecting from Trump’s presidency over the next two years?”; Analysts who responded “No impact” are not shown on the chart. Source: Fidelity International, January 2025.
Chart 2: Not so alarmed
What impact are your companies expecting from Trump’s presidency over the next two years?
Chart shows percentage of analysts responding to the question. Analysts who responded “No impact” are not shown on the chart. Source: Fidelity International, January 2025.
As the charts also show, however, those who cover North America’s enterprises have a more positive outlook than the global group concerning the impact of the new administration on their sectors. Central to that is an easier approach to domestic regulation - both of day-to-day business and acquisitions that previously might have been frowned upon.
“The Federal Trade Commission will be less likely to block potential takeovers under a Trump administration,” says healthcare analyst Sahil Kapoor.
Expectations of a rise in dealmaking under the man who prides himself on his “art of the deal”, have substantial implications for how businesses, and their stock prices, are viewed.
“Valuation levels have recovered from cyclical lows, increasing asset coverage to creditors and equity value to shareholders,” says Evan Delaney, a fixed income analyst who covers North American telecoms, media and tech-focused businesses.
“This in turn has improved each company’s access to capital markets, leading to a renewed interest in growth and investment in a sector that not too long ago was left for dead,” he says.
There are a range of sectors in particular where our analysts predict a surge in takeovers and mergers, including healthcare, communication services, IT, real estate, and energy.
Chart 3: Hints of an M&A boom
Do you think M&A will be any more or less prevalent among your companies over the next 12 months?
Chart shows percentage of analysts responding “Moderately more prevalent” or “Significantly more prevalent” to the question “Do you think M&A will be any more or less prevalent among your companies over the next 12 months?” Source: Fidelity International, January 2025.
“A different regulatory environment should get bankers talking,” says another media and television-focused respondent to the survey, Samuel Thomas.
“Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount, Fox, and the NBC unit of Comcast are all candidates for consolidation. Cable M&A may also pick up and video games is a fragmented industry where consolidation could be more likely. Strategic assets including Roku could also be targets.”
American exceptionalism
European and Asian-focused analysts suspect their companies may face a shuttering of markets in the United States, underpinning concerns compared to 2017 about the impact on profits of a new trade war.
Chart 4: Geopolitical risk looms large
What impact do you expect geopolitical risk will have on your companies’ profitability over the next 12 months?
Chart shows percentage of analysts reposnding “Moderately negative impact” or “Siginificantly negative impact” to the question. Source: Fidelity International, January 2025.
“Companies think Trump will prove more reserved on tariffs because they use the same global supply chain as their US counterparts and it would hurt US autos companies along with everyone else,” says Asian auto industry analyst Alan Zhou.
“In practice the government is likely to provide some forms of exemptions to US companies, and this will allow them to push ahead with a policy of higher tariffs.”
Reflate to innovate
As the fluctuations in market expectations for inflation and rates in the month since analysts filled in the survey have shown, thinking on a ‘reflation’ scenario for the next year varies widely depending on the sector and the region.
“The positive of tax breaks could be offset by the negatives of inflation from trade wars,” says consumer sector analyst Robert Glatt. “But that is more of a medium-term impact. Over the short term, we could benefit from improved consumer sentiment and the removal of uncertainty.”
All of the analysts were answering the survey before the Fed’s release of higher inflation projections in mid-December, but more immediate fears about the impact of tariffs on prices were already showing up for US-centric businesses.
“Tariffs are likely to lead to increases in prices for end customers, which negatively impacts volume demand,” says Jonathan Tseng, who covers Nvidia and the world’s other big chip producers. “The risk of US or China restrictions on certain tech products may disrupt normal business.”
And as financial markets have already shown in 2025, loose fiscal policy – widely expected from the new administration – does also come at a price.
“With the 30-year mortgage rate nearly back to 7 per cent, challenged affordability at the entry level may weigh on demand in 2025,” said Bobby Missar, who covers US homebuilders. He added that his companies were in a good position to offset that with incentives for buyers.
High hopes
Fidelity’s analysts are paid for the detailed insights they generate on their sectors and companies, and it is no surprise that this year’s survey contains competing messages on the impact of the new administration. But for US companies, the overall verdict leans positive: 47 per cent of our North American analysts said management at their companies were more confident about investing over the next 12 months. That number is three times what it was a year ago.
