The urgency to reach net zero and stop nature loss is leading to increasingly complex markets in need of more policy direction.

China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of Asian economies. But the growth story should continue in 2024.

In a no landing scenario, US economic growth would continue to be resilient while Europe’s current slowdown would reverse.

A balance sheet recession would be marked by a deep and prolonged downturn across developed and emerging economies.

A soft-landing scenario would involve a slightly below trend slowdown across major economies, with no major shocks to knock markets off track.

A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.

If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.

Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.