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Outlook scenario 4: No landing
In a no landing scenario, US economic growth would continue to be resilient while Europe’s current slowdown would reverse.
Outlook scenario 3: Balance sheet recession
A balance sheet recession would be marked by a deep and prolonged downturn across developed and emerging economies.
Outlook scenario 2: Soft landing
A soft-landing scenario would involve a slightly below trend slowdown across major economies, with no major shocks to knock markets off track.
Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case
A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.
Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward
Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.
The cost of higher for longer
With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.
Chart Room: Getting China’s youth back to work
The job prospects are still gloomy for young people in China, and the picture may get worse before it gets better.
Fidelity Analyst Survey: Inflation starts to peak
November’s survey of Fidelity’s 150 sector analysts highlights the pain businesses and households are experiencing, but that inflation is already easing.
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
Chart Room: Digging into China’s GDP growth
A sharp decline in excavator utilisation reflects China’s property-and-infrastructure-induced slowdown, but it also boosts the case for strong policy response.
The New Economic Order
We believe the Covid-19 crisis will trigger a step-change in policy, accelerate existing trends and transform investment frameworks.
Spiking US unemployment could unleash a cascade of systemic risks
The unprecedented rise in US unemployment has the potential to set off a chain of events that could destabilize already fragile markets.
Macro briefing: Heavyweight policies launched but more may be required
Macro briefing: Heavyweight policies launched but more may be required
Recession is here - how bad will it be?
Recession is here - how bad will it be?
Global GEAR suggests economy remains on weak footing
Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) is flat but there is plenty of divergence at the individual country level.
FLI: Surprisingly upbeat into Q4
The Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) showed firm improvement in September
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