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Macro 2025: US poised to reflate
A material shift in politics makes reflation of the US economy our base case for 2025.
Chinese policy crosses the Rubicon. What now?
A decisive policy pivot finally got markets excited again about China. But growth will only materialise if policymakers follow through with fiscal firepower.
Debt will be the issue for France after election surprise
A surprise election result still leaves France headed for more uncertainty in the days and weeks to come.
UK election likely to spur an economic shift
The Labour Party's policies coupled with a more volatile political environment in Europe may prove an inflection point for UK assets
Fed in a bind as 'narrative wars' take hold
Just over four months into 2024 and inflation has upended earlier forecasts. Salman Ahmed explains why that means more volatility ahead.
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
ECB in no rush to cut
While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates
Fundamentals: US consumers are resilient, but for how long?
A soft-landing or a slide into recession? How US consumer spending slows in 2024 may be the difference between one and the other. We dig into the detail.
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Asia outlook: Riding the growth momentum
China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of Asian economies. But the growth story should continue in 2024.
The economy in 2024: Something will give
If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.
Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields
Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields, Fixed Income CIO Steve Ellis discusses the recent bond sell-off.
Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing
Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.
PBoC ups ante on moves to meet growth target
Chinese authorities are accelerating what to date has been a relatively incremental easing of policy to support growth. There will be more to come.
The cost of higher for longer
With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.
Chart Room: The Fed’s ‘blocked drain’ conundrum
Despite signs of inflation easing off its peak, interest rate hikes have yet to flow freely and fully throughout the system.
Chart Room: Cost deflation, China’s latest export
China’s undershooting post-pandemic recovery has stoked fears of deflation. Our Analyst Survey indicates that businesses are bracing for cost reductions.
Signs of a dovish tilt from China’s Politburo
China’s leaders have voiced support for the economy, which is moderating after an initial bounce from the re-opening.
No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come
A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.
Rich Pickings podcast: Challenging the narrative on recession, inflation and rates
Steve Ellis, Anna Stupnystka and Rosanna Burcheri compare where they diverge from the consensus views on recession risk and monetary policy.
Chart Room: Cracks in credit will see gravity kick in
The evidence of strain in the financial system is growing amid a sharp tightening of credit conditions.
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Chart Room: Will the renminbi’s stable attraction woo Asian partners?
While the market traditionally focuses on the renminbi’s performance against the US dollar, we think its relationship with Asian peers deserves more attention.
Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?
The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Suisse roll-up
An historic last-minute takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS offers an imperfect solution as regulators seek to contain broader systemic risk.
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?
ECB still hiking but markets are focusing on the end point
President Lagarde tries to deliver another hawkish shock, but markets sense we are near the end of the hiking cycle for the ECB.
Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too
The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates
Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022
Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.
ECB rates stance raises risks of financial instability for 2023
If the ECB matches its hawkish rhetoric with policy action, concerns about the bloc's periphery may return, adding to concerns for investors next year.
Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push
The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.
Fidelity Analyst Survey: Inflation starts to peak
November’s survey of Fidelity’s 150 sector analysts highlights the pain businesses and households are experiencing, but that inflation is already easing.
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
Macro 2023: What happens next depends on the Fed
The global economy continues to face a confluence of challenges heading into 2023. A recession is likely in the US and near certain in Europe and the UK
Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’
Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.
Time to look beyond market turmoil and focus on China’s long-term growth
Time to look beyond market turmoil and focus on China’s long-term growth
ECB hikes 50bp but window to hike further is closing
The ECB finally raises interest rates
ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy
The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
Chart Room: Pole position for China’s electric autos
Despite rising materials costs, supply bottlenecks, and cloudy global macro conditions, China’s electric vehicle sector still looks charged for growth.
ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds
The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.
Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks
The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.
ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon
Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
CIO podcast: Why the Fed won't be so hawkish
Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery on the outlook for central banks
Macro view 2021: Debt, the elephant in the room
As policymakers and investors grapple with their new reality, the elephant in the room they’ll have to confront will be how to manage the heavy public debt.
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Near-zero rates expected through 2023 amid Fed concern about the economy
Fed offers forward guidance following shift in inflation targeting framework.
FLI: An 'uneasy' economic stabilisation ahead
The FLI suggests that even with the impending tariff escalation, we are far from a global recession
Why the Fed pivoted and what happens next
The Fed's dovish tone might not last for long.
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