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Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB in no rush to cut

While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates

Patrick Graham
Article 3 min read

Fundamentals: US consumers are resilient, but for how long?

A soft-landing or a slide into recession? How US consumer spending slows in 2024 may be the difference between one and the other. We dig into the detail.

Patrick Graham + 1 other | 20 December 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

Fed deals its cards early on rates

Fed deals its cards early on rates

Max Stainton + 1 other | 19 December 2023

Lei Zhu
Article 5 min read

Asia outlook: Riding the growth momentum

China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of Asian economies. But the growth story should continue in 2024.

Lei Zhu + 1 other | 17 November 2023

Salman Ahmed
Article 4 min read

The economy in 2024: Something will give

If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.

Salman Ahmed | 17 November 2023

Steve Ellis
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields

Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields, Fixed Income CIO Steve Ellis discusses the recent bond sell-off.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 5 October 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing

Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.

Max Stainton + 1 other | 21 September 2023

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

PBoC ups ante on moves to meet growth target

Chinese authorities are accelerating what to date has been a relatively incremental easing of policy to support growth. There will be more to come.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 18 September 2023

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

The cost of higher for longer

With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 4 September 2023

Ashray Ohri
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: The Fed’s ‘blocked drain’ conundrum

Despite signs of inflation easing off its peak, interest rate hikes have yet to flow freely and fully throughout the system.

Ashray Ohri + 2 others | 31 August 2023

Monica Li
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Cost deflation, China’s latest export

China’s undershooting post-pandemic recovery has stoked fears of deflation. Our Analyst Survey indicates that businesses are bracing for cost reductions.

Monica Li + 1 other | 3 August 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Signs of a dovish tilt from China’s Politburo

China’s leaders have voiced support for the economy, which is moderating after an initial bounce from the re-opening.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 5 min read

No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come

A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.

Richard Edgar
Podcast 41 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Challenging the narrative on recession, inflation and rates

Steve Ellis, Anna Stupnystka and Rosanna Burcheri compare where they diverge from the consensus views on recession risk and monetary policy.

Richard Edgar + 5 others | 26 July 2023

Aditya Khowala
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Cracks in credit will see gravity kick in

The evidence of strain in the financial system is growing amid a sharp tightening of credit conditions.

Aditya Khowala + 1 other | 7 July 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms

Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms

Salman Ahmed + 1 other | 4 May 2023

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Will the renminbi’s stable attraction woo Asian partners?

While the market traditionally focuses on the renminbi’s performance against the US dollar, we think its relationship with Asian peers deserves more attention.

George Efstathopoulos + 2 others | 3 April 2023

Lucas Klein
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?

The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.

Lucas Klein + 3 others | 30 March 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise

As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Suisse roll-up

An historic last-minute takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS offers an imperfect solution as regulators seek to contain broader systemic risk.

Steve Ellis + 2 others | 21 March 2023

Max Stainton
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed

Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed

Max Stainton + 2 others | 17 March 2023

Fiona O'Neill
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?

Chart Room: Sentiment turns positive, but can it hold?

Fiona O'Neill + 3 others | 16 February 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

ECB still hiking but markets are focusing on the end point

President Lagarde tries to deliver another hawkish shock, but markets sense we are near the end of the hiking cycle for the ECB.

Max Stainton | 2 February 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too

The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates

Yi Hu
Article 3 min read

Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022

Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.

Yi Hu + 1 other | 18 December 2022

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

ECB rates stance raises risks of financial instability for 2023

If the ECB matches its hawkish rhetoric with policy action, concerns about the bloc's periphery may return, adding to concerns for investors next year.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 December 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push

The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.

Salman Ahmed | 15 December 2022

Fiona O'Neill
Article 3 min read

Fidelity Analyst Survey: Inflation starts to peak

November’s survey of Fidelity’s 150 sector analysts highlights the pain businesses and households are experiencing, but that inflation is already easing.

Fiona O'Neill + 4 others | 7 December 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 5 min read

New world, new playbook

We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.

Salman Ahmed | 23 November 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 3 min read

Macro 2023: What happens next depends on the Fed

The global economy continues to face a confluence of challenges heading into 2023. A recession is likely in the US and near certain in Europe and the UK

Salman Ahmed | 11 November 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’

Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.

Fidelity International
Article 4 min read

Time to look beyond market turmoil and focus on China’s long-term growth

Time to look beyond market turmoil and focus on China’s long-term growth

Fidelity International | 27 October 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy

The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.

Miyuki Kashima
Article 3 min read

Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise

Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.

Miyuki Kashima + 1 other | 15 May 2022

Eric Tse
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Pole position for China’s electric autos

Despite rising materials costs, supply bottlenecks, and cloudy global macro conditions, China’s electric vehicle sector still looks charged for growth.

Eric Tse + 3 others | 6 April 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds

The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks

The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 3 min read

ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon

Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.

Shashank Manchanda
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is

Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.

Shashank Manchanda + 2 others | 27 January 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Podcast 13 min listen

CIO podcast: Why the Fed won't be so hawkish

Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery on the outlook for central banks

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 24 January 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 5 min read

Macro view 2021: Debt, the elephant in the room

As policymakers and investors grapple with their new reality, the elephant in the room they’ll have to confront will be how to manage the heavy public debt.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 27 November 2020

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 6 min read

Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach

Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Near-zero rates expected through 2023 amid Fed concern about the economy

Fed offers forward guidance following shift in inflation targeting framework.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 September 2020

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

FLI: An 'uneasy' economic stabilisation ahead

The FLI suggests that even with the impending tariff escalation, we are far from a global recession

Ian Samson | 8 August 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

Why the Fed pivoted and what happens next

The Fed's dovish tone might not last for long.

Anna Stupnytska | 29 March 2019

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