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US recession fears rise, but fundamentals remain resilient
There are good explanations for last week’s soft jobs data. Growth is unlikely to fall off a cliff, and a soft landing is still our most expected outcome.
The economy in 2024: Something will give
If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.
Rich Pickings podcast: Higher rates - is the transmission mechanism broken... or just delayed?
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity experts to discuss if the transmission mechanism of central bank rate setting is broken, or just delayed.
Quarterly Outlook: Resilience, refinancing, and recession risk
Markets have proven resilient to the prospect of recession. That they will continue to do so is far from certain.
Rich Pickings podcast: Challenging the narrative on recession, inflation and rates
Steve Ellis, Anna Stupnystka and Rosanna Burcheri compare where they diverge from the consensus views on recession risk and monetary policy.
Chemicals destocking: cross-asset analysts remain positive on 'unprecedented' cycle
Chemicals destocking: cross-asset analysts remain positive on 'unprecedented' cycle
Fundamentals: Low cost carriers win again
Airlines are emerging from three tough years, with even business class bookings recovering, but the advantage is again with Europe’s powerful low-cost carriers
Quarterly Outlook: Between resilience and fragility
Hopes of a soft landing have all but vanished. A recession is coming, but perhaps not for some time. For now, we oscillate between resilience and fragility.
Navigating the Polycrisis: A shift in the landscape
The perma-crisis that has coloured recent years has taken on new tones in the first months of 2023.
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
Chart Room: What 80 years of data (and 11 recessions) say about today’s macro outlook
Historically, a tightening in financial conditions like the one that we have seen over the last year invariably led to a recession.
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Fundamentals: This is not an iPhone
A US liberalisation of access to hearing aids brings one of the health world’s big equipment markets closer to the retail mainstream.
US midterms and a history of stock market gains
The division of power after US midterm elections has led to calmer stock markets and positive investment returns. 2023 may yet prove more of an exception.
Chart room: Leveraged loan market relatively resilient as downturn looms
Chart room: Leveraged loan market relatively resilient as downturn looms
Macro 2023: What happens next depends on the Fed
The global economy continues to face a confluence of challenges heading into 2023. A recession is likely in the US and near certain in Europe and the UK
ECB doves back in charge despite jumbo hike
The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.
Q4 Investment Outlook: Into the unknown
Fidelity International's Q4 Investment Outlook looks at the increasing likelihood of a hard landing.
A new spark in a long-term relationship: insurers in the private markets
A new spark in a long-term relationship: insurers in the private markets
Chart Room: Global sentiment sinking fast
Fidelity International analysts detect growing signs of recession by year’s end.
Q3 Investment Outlook: The Great Reset
Central banks have tried to strike a balance between reducing inflation by tightening financial conditions and mitigating the impact on economic growth.
Further Fed easing could create opportunities in credit
As the Fed eases, credit investors should prepare for widening spreads that offer better entry points, increasing their odds of producing excess returns.
Fed cuts by another 25 bps, but a cut doesn't cut it anymore
The 25 bps rate cut was widely expected, so markets should be relatively unmoved.
FLI: Another solid month indicates that global recession fears are overblown
Our Fidelity Leading Indicator boosts hopes that the worst is firmly behind us, and that the next move in global growth will be to the upside.
Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019: The end of optimism
An overview of the responses to Fidelity's 2019 Analyst Survey points to a slowdown in growth for many industries, but no imminent recession.
The next recession: zombie killer
Zombie companies have grown in number since the financial crisis. The next recession should kill them off.
Challenging consensus: market fears of a US recession may be overdone
Markets may be overly pessimistic over an imminent US recession given the recent uptick in real wages.
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