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Chart Room: Watching for cracks amid pressure on China’s local government finances
Some of China’s local government financing vehicles are struggling to service their debts, but not all LGFVs are created equal.
China’s property market sparks to life with signs of recovery
Homebuyers are finally back in action in China. We see a rebound in sales activity in mega cities, although consumer confidence remains fickle.
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
Remapping China risks
Amid rising investor uncertainty over China-related risks, we assess what’s changed and what hasn’t in the outlook for China’s markets and macro policy.
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
Chart Room: When it pays to consider low volatility strategies
In the face of a riskier macro environment, strategies designed to minimise volatility may find their time to shine.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Demographics
China’s labour pool is shrinking as the population ages. How people save and invest signals challenges and opportunities for China’s pension system.
Chart Room: Digging into China’s GDP growth
A sharp decline in excavator utilisation reflects China’s property-and-infrastructure-induced slowdown, but it also boosts the case for strong policy response.
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Regulation
How should investors look at a pick-up in regulatory activity that has affected some of China’s biggest and most dynamic companies?
Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time
A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.
Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve
The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.
After the selloff, what next for China equities?
A spate of regulatory actions across several sectors in China rattled markets and sent shares tumbling, but some of this selling appears overdone.
Chart Room: Gimme shelter (from inflation)
Shelter inflation continues to hold the key for forecasting inflation pressure in the US.
Credit risk at China’s SOEs in focus amid Huarong saga
China’s bond and equity markets have been rattled by concerns that state-owned enterprises could face greater default risk.
Why India’s ‘fallen angel’ risk is rising
India’s ballooning debt levels amid a structural growth slowdown have raised the risks of an imminent downgrade by credit ratings agencies.
Chart Room: Retail investors pile into the fastest growing stocks
Retail investors' market participation is extreme not only in volume, but also concentration.
Chart Room: A Goldilocks spot for inflation-linked bonds
We see a sweet spot in inflation-linked bonds with maturities ranging from 1 year to 10 years.
Sustainability is key for value creation
How should we quantify the valuation impact of sustainable investing?
Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt
Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.
Chart Room: Keep an eye on housing rents when tracking inflation
Some key considerations make us more constructive on US rents for the year ahead, particularly soaring home purchase prices.
Chart Room: Risk-on and on, with caveats
Caution and careful positioning are important from here, based on the latest readings from Fidelity’s risk aversion indicator.
Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?
In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.
Chart Room: After the Gold Rush
Is it time to take profits in gold?
Chart Room: A liquidity tide for the record books
2020 brought us new high-water marks in the US for both money supply growth and the personal savings rate.
Chart Room: Chinese stocks, playing catchup, finally retrace 2015 highs
But the rally in China’s main onshore index still lags its US and global counterparts.
Brexit agreement: A respite from uncertainty
What investors are looking at after UK exits the European Union
Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm
Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.
Chart Room: The clear link between ESG and returns
How have stocks that scored high for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors held up amid the Covid-19 fallout?
Chart Room: Some sectors may be set for a margin squeeze
The latest reading from our monthly analyst survey shows which companies are struggling with inflationary pressure but also weaker pricing power.
Chart Room: Correlations boil and bubble 🎃 and may spell toil and trouble 🦇
In this follow-up special Halloween edition of Chart Room, we look at how correlations are casting a spell over markets.
Chart Room: Government debt climbs to spooky heights
In this special Halloween edition Chart Room (part 1 of 2), we look at the frightening levels of government debt around the world.
Chart room: European cyclicals vulnerable if manufacturing data moderates
Any moderation in the growth of new manufacturing orders could make cyclicals vulnerable to a de-rating.
Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?
In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?
Chart Room: Why some tech valuations may be lower than you think
A closer look at longer-term valuations reveals some surprising trends in tech.
Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks
EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery
Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.
China property: Built for the long run
Facing challenges in their core business of building and selling new homes, Chinese real estate developers have found an alternative source of revenue.
Fidelity Leading Indicator points to weak recovery
Business sentiment and trade are improving, among signals of a fragile recovery, but consumer confidence and industrial orders lag.
Chinese banks are due for national service
As governments around the world exhaust their policy arsenals to save economies, China is reaching for a secret weapon unrivaled by most countries.
Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly
Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
FLI: Consumer pain leads the way
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
FLI: Consumer confidence holds up amid broad-based slowdown
For the first time in two years the Fidelity Leading Indicator cycle tracker signals both below-trend growth and deceleration.
Markets flash volatility on, risk off, but pockets of resilience remain
Risk assets extended their recent selloff, but amid the renewed volatility are some areas of unexpected outperformance.
When the playbook stops working
Why did markets wait so long to sell off in the wake of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak?
Market volatility spikes on coronavirus impact
How should investors respond to the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus outbreak, and the volatility it may create?
China’s stimulus is working, but credit markets hold longer-term risks
The credit stimulus measures that China began last summer are starting to reach a critical mass, but transmission to the real economy remains patchy.
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