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Fixed Income 2025: Rates make return journey
After navigating an interest rate hiking cycle, fixed income investors face a completely different challenge in 2025.
Fed goes big but volatility ahead
The labour market has pushed the Fed into more aggressive action. What it does next still hangs in the balance.
Fed in a bind as 'narrative wars' take hold
Just over four months into 2024 and inflation has upended earlier forecasts. Salman Ahmed explains why that means more volatility ahead.
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
For the Fed, the last mile is the hardest
US policymakers have cooled expectations of an interest rate cut in March, and there are still big risks on the road to a painless soft landing.
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Emerging markets give clues to Fed rate cut timing
Want to know when the Fed or ECB will start cutting interest rates? You could do worse than look at their emerging markets counterparts.
Rich Pickings podcast: Higher rates - is the transmission mechanism broken... or just delayed?
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity experts to discuss if the transmission mechanism of central bank rate setting is broken, or just delayed.
Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing
Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.
The cost of higher for longer
With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.
No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come
A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.
Rich Pickings podcast: Challenging the narrative on recession, inflation and rates
Steve Ellis, Anna Stupnystka and Rosanna Burcheri compare where they diverge from the consensus views on recession risk and monetary policy.
CIO podcast: US inflation and China's recovery
Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery discusses the latest US inflation data and China's recovery.
CIO podcast: The Fed's pause and what comes next
CIO podcast: The Fed's pause and what comes next
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
Leveraged loans hold steady through Fed pivots: a story in three charts
Leveraged loans hold steady through Fed pivots: a story in three charts
CIO podcast: The recent banking turmoil and what's next
Fidelity International's Global CIO speaks to Richard Edgar about the recent banking turmoil.
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Rich Pickings podcast: Looking for cracks in the system after SVB
After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Richard Edgar is joined by some of Fidelity's experts to discuss the fallout.
The Fed can’t paint over the cracks for long
Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer for fixed income on what the SVB collapse means for the Fed and monetary policy.
Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too
The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates
Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022
Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.
Rich Pickings podcast: Outlook 2023 - navigating the polycrisis
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity's cross-asset investment team to discuss the 2023 Outlook.
Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push
The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.
Chart Room: Falling US retail sales suggest inflation may have peaked
Real retail sales have fallen significantly since 2021. This suggests core inflation could be due to ease soon - and has almost certainly peaked.
Fixed income 2023: A new era for interest rates
Bond yields are finally starting to look attractive again but are they priced for the scale of the downturn ahead?
Macro 2023: What happens next depends on the Fed
The global economy continues to face a confluence of challenges heading into 2023. A recession is likely in the US and near certain in Europe and the UK
Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’
Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.
Rich Pickings podcast: Keeping cool heads in volatile times
Portfolio Managers Charlotte Harington and Ian Fishwick join Richard Edgar to discuss what investors can do in these times of turmoil.
The Fed’s dilemma in three charts
The risk that the Fed will go too far in trying to bring inflation under control is becoming more acute.
Rich Pickings podcast: Where next for the UK?
Four of Fidelity's investment team join Richard Edgar to discuss where next for the UK after a week of market turmoil.
Fed hike: What you're missing from the inflation narrative
Fidelity's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income Steve Ellis shares his views on the unexpected consequences of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle.
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
CIO podcast: Frustrations at the Fed and what the winter might hold
Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery speaks to Richard Edgar about the recent market turmoil.
Chair Powell bares his inflation teeth
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong
Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen
The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.
CIO podcast: Growth risks and the safe harbours for portfolios
Richard Edgar speaks to Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery about growth risks and safe harbours for portfolios.
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?
While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.
CIO podcast: The questions investors have on China, Ukraine, and Fed rates
"The market feels that the trajectory of rate rises actually increases the risk of [...] recession," says Global CIO Andrew McCaffery.
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
CIO podcast: Why the Fed won't be so hawkish
Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery on the outlook for central banks
Chart Room: 2021’s long goodbye to transitory inflation
Five charts that show the inflationary impact of 2021’s reopening cycle
Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch
Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering timeline
Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground
Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground
Fed disconnects timelines for tapering and rate rises
At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell confirmed that the test of "substantial further progress" on inflation has now been met.
Policy credibility remains key macro risk following hawkish Fed meeting
Chair Powell says Fed is considering beginning discussions on tapering.
Fed acknowledges change in reaction function
Fed reiterates guidance and maintains asset purchase programme, despite a significant upgrade to growth and inflation projections.
US election outcomes: Implications for growth and policy
US election Outcomes: Implications for growth and policy
Swinging 60s inflation pattern due a comeback
The years between 1964-75, a time of fiscal expansion and low rates, shows why inflation might come back faster than some think.
Near-zero rates expected through 2023 amid Fed concern about the economy
Fed offers forward guidance following shift in inflation targeting framework.
Fed resets framework for greater flexibility
Rates likely to remain low even if inflation moderately overshoots target.
Fed in a holding pattern, for now
Trajectory of the recovery remains uncertain despite better employment figures in May.
Fidelity CIOs: Effects of monetary explosion
The sheer scale of central bank action could store up problems for the future.
Macro briefing: More stimulus expected, but will it be enough?
New figures show that more than 2.9 million workers applied for unemployment benefits, taking the total count to 36.5 million applications in two months.
Fed prolongs expansion for those left behind
Fed funds rate remains unchanged amid strong labour market.
Further Fed easing could create opportunities in credit
As the Fed eases, credit investors should prepare for widening spreads that offer better entry points, increasing their odds of producing excess returns.
Fed cuts by another 25 bps, but a cut doesn't cut it anymore
The 25 bps rate cut was widely expected, so markets should be relatively unmoved.
Fed opens the door to a further reduction as it makes 25 bps 'insurance' cut
After hiking nine times in the past four years, the Fed has reversed course
Central banks keep the show on the road, for now
Equity and bond markets don’t agree on what we should expect for the second half of the year. How should investors position in light of these mixed signals?
EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard
China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.
EM outlook: Easier conditions, tougher growth
After a challenging end to last year, the start of 2019 has brought some tentative stability to emerging markets. But it is too early to issue the all-clear.
The Fed's message is solidly dovish; for now
The Fed stuck to its solidly dovish message in March, in line with market expectations. However, it risks leaving itself little room for manoeuvre.
Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements
Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements
EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come
Risks remain to the downside for emerging markets due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.
Emerging Markets outlook: Not out of the woods
Despite better data in June, the Fidelity Leading Indicator remains negative, especially in key EM-sensitive areas like global trade and commodities.
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