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Fixed Income 2025: Rates make return journey
After navigating an interest rate hiking cycle, fixed income investors face a completely different challenge in 2025.
Equities 2025: New avenues
A decisive US election, political ructions in Europe, and Chinese fiscal action spell more volatility for stock markets in 2025. And new roads to returns.
Multi Asset 2025: Late cycle with a twist
We are positive on risk assets despite being later in the cycle.
Macro 2025: US poised to reflate
A material shift in politics makes reflation of the US economy our base case for 2025.
Outlook 2025: All change
The year ahead promises a different environment for financial investors, but it is clear earnings in many areas will improve and the global mood is positive.
Trump wins
Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. Here Fidelity International’s economists and investment managers discuss some of the likely impact.
US elections: stick to the fundamentals
Predicting stock market swings after a White House campaign has been a fool’s game historically. Track the broader factors driving company fundamentals instead
Three reasons to keep an eye on US bonds
Conditions look ripe for a period of outperformance in US credit markets.
Fed in a bind as 'narrative wars' take hold
Just over four months into 2024 and inflation has upended earlier forecasts. Salman Ahmed explains why that means more volatility ahead.
US high yield may be less stretched than you think
Investor interest in income strategies has squeezed high yield credit spreads. But a metric we watch at Fidelity suggests they may not be overpriced yet.
Chart Room: China's solar non grata
Solar energy stocks in China rebounded as the country rekindled cooperation with the US on climate change. But we think investors’ optimism is misplaced.
Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields
Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields, Fixed Income CIO Steve Ellis discusses the recent bond sell-off.
Fundamentals: The AI frenzy comes to China
Fundamentals: The AI frenzy comes to China
A scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling standoff
A scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling standoff
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?
The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.
Fundamentals: US oil majors finally get serious about clean energy
Fundamentals: US oil majors finally get serious about clean energy
Rich Pickings podcast: Your questions answered
Fidelity experts answer listeners investment questions for this festive special of Rich Pickings.
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
CIO podcast: US midterms and digital assets after FTX
Fidelity International's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery speaks to Richard Edgar about the US midterms and digital assets after FTX.
US midterms and a history of stock market gains
The division of power after US midterm elections has led to calmer stock markets and positive investment returns. 2023 may yet prove more of an exception.
Looking through the gridlock
The initial returns from US midterm elections point to a high likelihood of gridlock in Washington for the next two years.
Chart Room: US housing dip may hit sentiment hard
US real estate was at the centre of the financial crash in 2008. The US housing sector is back in focus again as unaffordability returns to peaks from 2005-7
Chart Room: China takes own path in a tightening world
China is bucking the trend towards higher interest rates, and the resulting yield divergence has huge implications for bond investors and currency markets.
CIO podcast: Preparing portfolios for a hard landing
Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery speaks to Richard Edgar about economic headwinds and preparing portfolios for a hard landing.
Chart Room: Supercharged commodities spell a regime change for investing
Demand for real assets neglected in the pandemic could be set to surge as the world shifts to a new, sustainable paradigm, but there will also be more pain
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering
The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering timeline
Chart Room: US restaurants devour record receipts amid rebound
A resurgent desire to eat out has propelled monthly US restaurant sales above pre-pandemic levels. Despite challenges, we see a long runway of recovery ahead.
Chart Room: Gimme shelter (from inflation)
Shelter inflation continues to hold the key for forecasting inflation pressure in the US.
US Elections: As the dust settles
Beyond the elections, the longer-term focus is on the US domestic economy, regionalisation of global trade, and the resilience of emerging and Asian markets.
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Fed resets framework for greater flexibility
Rates likely to remain low even if inflation moderately overshoots target.
Chart Room: A new record high for US stocks, but mind the lopsided valuations
The average European bank capital ratio has never been stronger. This has led to a stark contrast in returns across bank capital structures.
Chart Room: US debt delinquencies drop, but recession looms as unemployment surges
Household debt forbearance measures have given a temporary boost to borrowers in the US. But as unemployment surges, more supportive measures will be needed.
Hong Kong and the relevance of economic resilience
Markets recently reflected uncertainty over Hong Kong’s status as a centre for international finance, but investors would do well to take a longer-term view.
Is the US turning Japanese?
A higher post-coronavirus savings rate in the US risks pushing the country into a low growth spiral similar to that which first ensnared Japan 30 years ago.
The end of the journey to the West: Chinese tech firms come home
The tides of global capital markets have turned for Chinese tech firms. Instead of US listings, they are starting to find greater China more compelling.
Macro briefing: ECB relaxes collateral rules to accept junk bonds
ECB’s decision comes ahead of S&P Global Ratings’ review of Italy’s credit rating
Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming
Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming
What recent market moves imply about the US economic outlook
We take a look at 20 years of data to estimate the hit to the US economy being priced in by equity and credit markets.
Massive US fiscal package needs effective implementation
A rescue package for ‘Main Street’ has been agreed. This far-reaching deal unlocks funds to support the US economy, but implementation is crucial.
A growing chasm
Optimism over a trade truce between the US and China is premature. Investors should be prepared for divergence in key areas.
Beyond the rotting soybeans of the US and China trade dispute
Looking at the big picture on global protectionism
China needs a trade deal more than the US
Given the mixed economic indicators, it is China - and not the US - that could do with the fiscal and sentiment boost that a trade deal would deliver.
Pushing against the tide
Reports the Trump administration is considering restricting US portfolio flows to China are a cause for concern but would be a challenge to implement.
Trump ratchets up US-China trade war with new tariffs
Donald Trump announced on Twitter this week that he plans to add new import tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese-made products
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Clinging to optimism
Our FLI cycle tracker indicates the global economy is past the worst
US-China trade wars: What to expect from the G20
US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to hold an informal meeting at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28-29.
Renewed trade tensions buck the rally
Policy action is now driving market sentiment
What does the US-China trade-talk extension mean for investors?
While headlines suggest that the US and China are inching closer to a deal, it’s clear that there are still a range of questions that need to be addressed.
Analyst Survey 2019: The Trump bump is over
Corporate concerns about the administration’s approach are mounting, and the net impact on companies is now expected to be negative.
Challenging consensus: market fears of a US recession may be overdone
Markets may be overly pessimistic over an imminent US recession given the recent uptick in real wages.
China and emerging market GEARs deteriorate in December
Emerging market economic indicators deteriorate in December
September's Rich Pickings podcast: A world at the mercy of America
The US is playing an increasingly central role in world markets. Why does this matter?
Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker.
US-China trade tensions: Why investors should mind the fundamentals
US-China trade tensions: Why investors should mind the fundamentals
US sanction pressure against Russia will keep rising
The last few years have seen a continued worsening of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US - and this trend will probably persist.
Grit in the machine: Assessing the US-China trade war impact for investors
There are two ways the US-China trade war situation could play out for investors, depending on US policymakers’ motives for the current action.
No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now
There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.
GEAR levels show US economic exuberance could continue into H2
Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) show that US GEAR levels of 4 per cent almost exactly matched the second quarter GDP print.
US-China trade tensions ratchet up
The US has launched another round of tariffs on exports from China, sparking market jitters. But there are reasons to be positive on Chinese equities.
Views from the desk: Diverging monetary policy
Diverging monetary policy
Buckle opinion: Fed raises rates; can't be many in 2018
David Buckle's opinion on the Fed reserve rates decision
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