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Chinese policy crosses the Rubicon. What now?
A decisive policy pivot finally got markets excited again about China. But growth will only materialise if policymakers follow through with fiscal firepower.
Q4 Investment Outlook: Risks balanced
We’re seeing a rotation, not a sell-off.
UK election likely to spur an economic shift
The Labour Party's policies coupled with a more volatile political environment in Europe may prove an inflection point for UK assets
Unlocking alpha: How global investors can play China’s onshore bonds
There's room for alpha in China’s top-rated bonds, which account for a significant part of global fixed income indexes and benefit from macro headwinds.
Fed in a bind as 'narrative wars' take hold
Just over four months into 2024 and inflation has upended earlier forecasts. Salman Ahmed explains why that means more volatility ahead.
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
ECB in no rush to cut
While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Chart Room: China’s booming panda bond market not so black and white
The panda bond market boomed in 2023. But the market still faces hurdles, including poor liquidity and competition from the offshore ‘dim sum’ bond market.
Japan’s reflating economy is kindling new hopes
Following decades of price stagnation and declines, Japan’s push to bring back “good inflation” is finally bearing fruit. But how sustainable is it?
Chart Room: Why China is all aglitter over gold
China’s onshore gold price premium has expanded, spurring cross-border arbitrage and calling for stronger policy measures to shore up confidence.
Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing
Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.
PBoC ups ante on moves to meet growth target
Chinese authorities are accelerating what to date has been a relatively incremental easing of policy to support growth. There will be more to come.
The cost of higher for longer
With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.
Chart Room: Cost deflation, China’s latest export
China’s undershooting post-pandemic recovery has stoked fears of deflation. Our Analyst Survey indicates that businesses are bracing for cost reductions.
Signs of a dovish tilt from China’s Politburo
China’s leaders have voiced support for the economy, which is moderating after an initial bounce from the re-opening.
No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come
A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.
BOJ: Patience is virtue
At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan has retained its dovish bias, and we believe markets will price in a lower possibility of an imminent exit from YCC.
Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache
The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.
China + 1 = ASEAN: A winning formula
A pandemic, a war and geopolitical tensions have caused global firms to rethink their supply chains, and many are eyeing the ASEAN region.
Quarterly Outlook: Navigating the polycrisis - Part II
In Fidelity's latest quarterly outlook, we believe that recession over the next 12 months looks increasingly likely across developed markets.
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Inflation’s bite won’t spoil China’s recovery
Spiralling prices were a headache for much of the world in 2022, and some are asking if it’s China’s turn.
Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too
The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates
A new golden age for China’s investment sector
China’s investment and wealth management industry is embracing a golden age. The onshore markets will remain an attractive long-term investment destination.
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
Bonds are back in town
For over a decade, one of the main cards in investors’ pack - solid and steadily yielding government bonds - has been off the table. That era has ended.
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong
China’s property downturn may have found a floor
The government’s will to reform a wayward real estate industry is balanced against the more urgent task of reviving a slowing economy.
Q3 Investment Outlook: The Great Reset
Central banks have tried to strike a balance between reducing inflation by tightening financial conditions and mitigating the impact on economic growth.
ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy
The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
Q2 Investment Outlook: The “Grand Chessboard” reconfigured; stagflation risks intensify
The global order is reconfigured and stagflation risks intensify.
Searching for safe havens amid a stagflation shock
High inflation and damaged growth will define the macro outlook for several quarters
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Mapping US election tail risks: a framework-based approach
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery
Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.
Fidelity Leading Indicator points to weak recovery
Business sentiment and trade are improving, among signals of a fragile recovery, but consumer confidence and industrial orders lag.
A heavy outlook for the US Dollar
The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.
Biden is the change candidate in the US elections
Democrat hopeful Joe Biden is the current favourite to win in November's US presidential elections, but it is too early to take a firm view.
The Fidelity Leading Indicator finds a floor
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
BoE will need to act again, with negative rates still a possibility
The Bank boosted its QE by £100bn
FLI takes another leg down despite lockdowns easing
The FLI now points to a quarterly contraction about 125 per cent of the magnitude of that seen in the depth of the GFC.
ECB pleases markets with additional €600bn stimulus
The central bank has increased the size of its pandemic stimulus package to €1.35 trillion
Macro briefing: EU Commission unveils historic aid package tied to Green Deal
The EU package is structured in the form of €500 billion of grants while the remaining €250 billion will be made available as loans.
Macro briefing: More stimulus expected, but will it be enough?
New figures show that more than 2.9 million workers applied for unemployment benefits, taking the total count to 36.5 million applications in two months.
Macro briefing: German court ruling may reduce ECB firepower
The German court ruling poses long-term risks to ECB's flexibility
The New Economic Order
We believe the Covid-19 crisis will trigger a step-change in policy, accelerate existing trends and transform investment frameworks.
Macro briefing: Central banks prepare for further action as economic outlook darkens
The Eurozone economy contracted at the fastest rate on record in Q1
Fed holds fire for now, but ready for further action
The Fed Reserve made it clear that it is prepared to intervene further if required
Macro briefing: ECB relaxes collateral rules to accept junk bonds
ECB’s decision comes ahead of S&P Global Ratings’ review of Italy’s credit rating
Macro briefing: Fed extends its reach to support employment
The Fed is now using all creative tools at its disposal to mitigate the surge of layoffs in the US.
Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support
Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support
Spiking US unemployment could unleash a cascade of systemic risks
The unprecedented rise in US unemployment has the potential to set off a chain of events that could destabilize already fragile markets.
Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming
Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming
Massive US fiscal package needs effective implementation
A rescue package for ‘Main Street’ has been agreed. This far-reaching deal unlocks funds to support the US economy, but implementation is crucial.
Recession is here - how bad will it be?
Recession is here - how bad will it be?
Europe catches coronavirus: Inside the market sell-off
European equity and debt markets flipped from exuberance to pessimism after the coronavirus spread to Northern Italy.
BOE shies away from insurance cut and prays for sustainable growth
The BoE held rates at its first meeting of the new year and its last before the UK leaves the EU
Cool Heads: Ian Samson and Andrea Iannelli on growth and inflation
Ben Deane sets out what’s been driving inflation, Ian Samson explains his outlook for the coming months and Andrea Iannelli examines what it means for markets.
Global GEAR suggests economy remains on weak footing
Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) is flat but there is plenty of divergence at the individual country level.
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