Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually
difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.
If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they
will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for
A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a
return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.
A soft-landing scenario would involve a slightly below trend slowdown across
major economies, with no major shocks to knock markets off track.
A balance sheet recession would be marked by a deep and prolonged downturn
across developed and emerging economies.
In a no landing scenario, US economic growth would continue to be resilient
while Europe’s current slowdown would reverse.
China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the
lustre of Asian economies. But the growth story should continue in 2024.
The urgency to reach net zero and stop nature loss is leading to increasingly
complex markets in need of more policy direction.
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity's heads of investment to discuss the
investment outlook for 2024.