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Timothy Foster
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Why inflation 'surprises' really shouldn’t be a surprise

More often than not, inflation-linked bond valuations relative to nominal ones underestimate the likelihood of upside inflation surprises.

Timothy Foster + 1 other | 13 February 2024

Peiqian Liu
Article 3 min read

Lower targets, more stimulus for China

March’s National People’s Congress in China will almost certainly set a reduced growth target of 5 per cent.

Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 13 February 2024

Kris Atkinson
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Sterling investment grade offers sanctuary to income seekers

Yields on IG corporate debt look attractive after a difficult period for fixed income. This is useful at a time when it makes sense to act defensively.

Kris Atkinson + 1 other | 9 February 2024

Chris Ellinger
Article 3 min read

Lower rates won’t ground money markets

Interest rates are expected to drop this year. But the solid and secure returns that have drawn investors to money markets will not evaporate quite as quickly.

Chris Ellinger + 3 others | 9 February 2024

Anna Stupnytska
Video 2 min watch

For the Fed, the last mile is the hardest

US policymakers have cooled expectations of an interest rate cut in March, and there are still big risks on the road to a painless soft landing.

Anna Stupnytska + 2 others | 1 February 2024

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB in no rush to cut

While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates

Richard Edgar
Podcast 40 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: What the lessons of 2023 can teach investors for the year ahead

From artificial intelligence to US resilience, Richard Edgar discusses the big themes of 2023 with a panel of multi asset portfolio managers.

Richard Edgar + 5 others | 20 December 2023

Toby Sims
Article 4 min read

The ups and downs: Charting 2023

Six charts that capture the economic make-up of 2023 - inflation, interest rates, and everything in between.

Toby Sims | 19 December 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

Fed deals its cards early on rates

Fed deals its cards early on rates

Max Stainton + 1 other | 19 December 2023

Paul Greer
Article 1 min read

Emerging markets give clues to Fed rate cut timing

Want to know when the Fed or ECB will start cutting interest rates? You could do worse than look at their emerging markets counterparts.

Paul Greer + 1 other | 8 December 2023

Lei Zhu
Article 4 min read

Axing the ‘ex-Japan’: a new era for Japanese bonds

Tailwinds from index reform to rate-hike expectations are lifting Japan's bond market from the doldrums, breathing new life into what was a dull backwater.

Lei Zhu + 3 others | 5 December 2023

Fidelity International
Article 5 min read

Outlook scenario 4: No landing

In a no landing scenario, US economic growth would continue to be resilient while Europe’s current slowdown would reverse.

Fidelity International | 17 November 2023

Fidelity International
Article 5 min read

Outlook scenario 2: Soft landing

A soft-landing scenario would involve a slightly below trend slowdown across major economies, with no major shocks to knock markets off track.

Fidelity International | 17 November 2023

Fidelity International
Article 5 min read

Outlook scenario 3: Balance sheet recession

A balance sheet recession would be marked by a deep and prolonged downturn across developed and emerging economies.

Fidelity International | 17 November 2023

Fidelity International
Article 6 min read

Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case

A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.

Fidelity International | 17 November 2023

Max Stainton
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: A waiting game on rate transmission

The US continues to defy the gravity of rate hikes but a closer look at monetary policy transmission mechanisms suggests the effects are delayed, not denied.

Max Stainton + 1 other | 26 October 2023

Steve Ellis
Podcast 35 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Higher rates - is the transmission mechanism broken... or just delayed?

Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity experts to discuss if the transmission mechanism of central bank rate setting is broken, or just delayed.

Steve Ellis + 5 others | 20 October 2023

Fidelity International
Article 3 min read

Middle East attacks hint at another shock for markets

Middle East attacks hint at another shock for markets. Fidelity analysts discuss oil and markets' reaction.

Fidelity International | 10 October 2023

Steve Ellis
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields

Chart Room: Catching the turn on bond yields, Fixed Income CIO Steve Ellis discusses the recent bond sell-off.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 5 October 2023

Edward Tajima
Article 4 min read

Japan’s reflating economy is kindling new hopes

Following decades of price stagnation and declines, Japan’s push to bring back “good inflation” is finally bearing fruit. But how sustainable is it?

Edward Tajima + 3 others | 3 October 2023

Karen Zhou
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Why China is all aglitter over gold

China’s onshore gold price premium has expanded, spurring cross-border arbitrage and calling for stronger policy measures to shore up confidence.

Karen Zhou + 2 others | 28 September 2023

Andrew McCaffery
Article 2 min read

Quarterly Outlook: Resilience, refinancing, and recession risk

Markets have proven resilient to the prospect of recession. That they will continue to do so is far from certain.

Andrew McCaffery | 27 September 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing

Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.

Max Stainton + 1 other | 21 September 2023

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

PBoC ups ante on moves to meet growth target

Chinese authorities are accelerating what to date has been a relatively incremental easing of policy to support growth. There will be more to come.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 18 September 2023

Ashray Ohri
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: The Fed’s ‘blocked drain’ conundrum

Despite signs of inflation easing off its peak, interest rate hikes have yet to flow freely and fully throughout the system.

Ashray Ohri + 2 others | 31 August 2023

Kris Atkinson
Article 2 min read

Gilt markets look too bearish

UK Gilt markets are pricing in further increases in yields. But the economic data suggest this view is too pessimistic.

Kris Atkinson + 4 others | 24 August 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 5 min read

No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come

A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.

Amber Stevenson
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: EM and commodities have decoupled - but for how long?

The relationship between EMs and commodities has come under pressure. But a closer look at the two asset classes suggests that the old order could be restored.

Amber Stevenson | 27 July 2023

Richard Edgar
Podcast 41 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Challenging the narrative on recession, inflation and rates

Steve Ellis, Anna Stupnystka and Rosanna Burcheri compare where they diverge from the consensus views on recession risk and monetary policy.

Richard Edgar + 5 others | 26 July 2023

Andrew McCaffery
Podcast 17 min listen

CIO podcast: US inflation and China's recovery

Fidelity's Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery discusses the latest US inflation data and China's recovery.

Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 25 July 2023

Michael Curtis
Article 6 min read

Private Credit Quarterly Outlook: tensions mount but resilience reigns

Private credit markets have proven resilient. But this is not to say that the sector has been completely unaffected, nor that there won't be casualties ahead.

Michael Curtis + 4 others | 23 June 2023

Andrew McCaffery
Article 2 min read

Quarterly Outlook: Between resilience and fragility

Hopes of a soft landing have all but vanished. A recession is coming, but perhaps not for some time. For now, we oscillate between resilience and fragility.

Andrew McCaffery | 23 June 2023

Craig Topp
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Leveraged borrowers feel the squeeze as debt costs rise

Chart Room: Leveraged borrowers feel the squeeze as debt costs rise interest cost ratios

Craig Topp + 1 other | 22 June 2023

Holli Eastman
Podcast 18 min listen

CIO podcast: The Fed's pause and what comes next

CIO podcast: The Fed's pause and what comes next

Holli Eastman + 2 others | 16 June 2023

Peiqian Liu
Article 3 min read

BOJ: Patience is virtue

At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan has retained its dovish bias, and we believe markets will price in a lower possibility of an imminent exit from YCC.

Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 16 June 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation

Peiqian Liu
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache

The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.

Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 18 May 2023

Salman Ahmed
Article 4 min read

Navigating the Polycrisis: A shift in the landscape

The perma-crisis that has coloured recent years has taken on new tones in the first months of 2023.

Salman Ahmed | 4 May 2023

Lee Sotos
Article 4 min read

First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system

First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system

Lee Sotos + 3 others | 3 May 2023

Max Stainton
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: What 80 years of data (and 11 recessions) say about today’s macro outlook

Historically, a tightening in financial conditions like the one that we have seen over the last year invariably led to a recession.

Max Stainton + 2 others | 20 April 2023

Nana Yang
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Utilities less useful as bond proxies

Rising interest rates in the US are testing the notion of utility stocks as bond proxies, as ties between their P/E ratios and corporate bond yields weaken.

Nana Yang + 1 other | 13 April 2023

Camille McLeod-Salmon
Article 2 min read

Leveraged loans hold steady through Fed pivots: a story in three charts

Leveraged loans hold steady through Fed pivots: a story in three charts

Camille McLeod-Salmon + 2 others | 5 April 2023

Richard Edgar
Podcast 18 min listen

CIO podcast: The recent banking turmoil and what's next

Fidelity International's Global CIO speaks to Richard Edgar about the recent banking turmoil.

Richard Edgar + 2 others | 29 March 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise

As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.

Max Stainton
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed

Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed

Max Stainton + 2 others | 17 March 2023

Anna Stupnytska
Article 2 min read

A hawkish ECB stays the course despite market turmoil

The ECB stuck to its 50 basis point hike despite financial stability concerns. Tightening credit could hit the real economy earlier, and harder, than expected.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 March 2023

Steve Ellis
Article 2 min read

The Fed can’t paint over the cracks for long

Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer for fixed income on what the SVB collapse means for the Fed and monetary policy.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 15 March 2023

Lee Sotos
Article 2 min read

SVB sell-off shows where market weaknesses lie, but contagion unlikely

SVB sell-off shows where market weaknesses lie, but contagion unlikely

Lee Sotos + 1 other | 10 March 2023

Victoria Mio
Article 2 min read

China’s property market sparks to life with signs of recovery

Homebuyers are finally back in action in China. We see a rebound in sales activity in mega cities, although consumer confidence remains fickle.

Victoria Mio + 3 others | 9 March 2023

Gita Bal
Article 5 min read

Analyst Survey 2023: Companies prepare for a world after cheap financing

Companies prepare for a world after cheap financing

Gita Bal + 2 others | 6 February 2023

Max Stainton
Article 3 min read

ECB still hiking but markets are focusing on the end point

President Lagarde tries to deliver another hawkish shock, but markets sense we are near the end of the hiking cycle for the ECB.

Max Stainton | 2 February 2023

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too

The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates

Aditya Khowala
Podcast 21 min listen

Rich Pickings podcast: Your questions answered

Fidelity experts answer listeners investment questions for this festive special of Rich Pickings.

Aditya Khowala + 4 others | 22 December 2022

Yi Hu
Article 3 min read

Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022

Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.

Yi Hu + 1 other | 18 December 2022

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

ECB rates stance raises risks of financial instability for 2023

If the ECB matches its hawkish rhetoric with policy action, concerns about the bloc's periphery may return, adding to concerns for investors next year.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 December 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push

The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.

Salman Ahmed | 15 December 2022

Salman Ahmed
Article 5 min read

New world, new playbook

We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.

Salman Ahmed | 23 November 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Article 2 min read

Overview: Rates overshoot risks inflation bust

Inflation has dogged markets this year, but there is a risk that overtightening by central banks will trigger a sharp recession, an 'inflation bust'

Andrew McCaffery | 11 November 2022

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Bonds are back in town

For over a decade, one of the main cards in investors’ pack - solid and steadily yielding government bonds - has been off the table. That era has ended.

Steve Ellis | 7 November 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’

Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB doves back in charge despite jumbo hike

The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.

Charlotte Harington
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Pressure mounts on yen as US yields soar

Japan's commitment to YCC puts it in a difficult position amid rising inflation. Were the BoJ to abandon YCC, the knock-on effects could be severe.

Charlotte Harington | 27 October 2022

Fidelity International
Article 3 min read

Bank in a bind over LDI volatility

The Bank of England appears to be drawing a line in the sand to force sections of the pension system to deleverage faster.

Fidelity International | 13 October 2022

Aditya Khowala
Blog 3 min read

Chart Room: US housing dip may hit sentiment hard

US real estate was at the centre of the financial crash in 2008. The US housing sector is back in focus again as unaffordability returns to peaks from 2005-7

Aditya Khowala + 2 others | 13 October 2022

Andrew McCaffery
Article 2 min read

Q4 Asia Investment Outlook: Potential bright spot amid a challenging winter

Asia is insulated to a degree from the struggles facing Europe, and though it faces its own problems, we are turning more positive on the region.

Andrew McCaffery | 11 October 2022

Fidelity International
Article 7 min read

Navigating the strong dollar fallout

The dollar's gains are sending ructions through financial markets. We look at where and how the pressures are starting to be felt and what might halt the rise.

Fidelity International | 7 October 2022

Steve Ellis
Article 2 min read

The Fed’s dilemma in three charts

The risk that the Fed will go too far in trying to bring inflation under control is becoming more acute.

Steve Ellis + 1 other | 30 September 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

UK macro under stress

The new UK government unveiled the promised "mini budget" last Friday that slashed taxes across the board.

Steve Ellis
Podcast 16 min listen

Fed hike: What you're missing from the inflation narrative

Fidelity's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income Steve Ellis shares his views on the unexpected consequences of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle.

Steve Ellis + 3 others | 23 September 2022

Chris Ellinger
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: The Fed walks a quantitative tightrope

The quantitative tightening of US financial conditions will inevitably strain parts of the banking system

Chris Ellinger + 2 others | 22 September 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action

Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Watch where you step as defaults set to rise

Fidelity’s projected credit spread premium model suggests high yield investors may be taking on more risk than they are being paid for.

Steve Ellis + 2 others | 20 September 2022

Taosha Wang
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: China takes own path in a tightening world

China is bucking the trend towards higher interest rates, and the resulting yield divergence has huge implications for bond investors and currency markets.

Taosha Wang + 2 others | 15 September 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB hawks rule, for now

While guidance remains hawkish on further interest rate hikes into 2023, implementing such a path will be hard in practice.

Ario Emami Nejad
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time

Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time

Ario Emami Nejad | 7 September 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

Chair Powell bares his inflation teeth

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.

Rick Patel
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: The plunge in US consumer sentiment

The soaring cost of living has pushed US consumer sentiment to an all-time low.

Rick Patel | 11 August 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more

A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong

Ming Gong
Article 3 min read

China’s property downturn may have found a floor

The government’s will to reform a wayward real estate industry is balanced against the more urgent task of reviving a slowing economy.

Ming Gong + 3 others | 12 July 2022

Fiona O'Neill
Article 2 min read

The ingredients are there for a wage-price spiral

After the surge in inflation, will wages follow? Our analysts think they will.

Fiona O'Neill + 2 others | 8 July 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen

The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy

The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.

Toby Gibb
Blog 1 min read

Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come

Chart Room: Valuations look more reasonable but there may be more to come

Toby Gibb | 31 May 2022

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon

The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon

George Efstathopoulos | 19 May 2022

Miyuki Kashima
Article 3 min read

Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise

Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.

Miyuki Kashima + 1 other | 15 May 2022

Leia Ma
Article 2 min read

Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?

Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.

Leia Ma + 3 others | 12 May 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 3 min read

50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?

While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.

Tigran Manukyan
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: US yield curve could steepen further out

We are sceptical of the economic scenarios implied by the current pricing of the medium and long parts of the US yield curve.

Tigran Manukyan | 20 April 2022

Alvin Cheng
Article 5 min read

China as a new safe haven?

Looming stagflation and war effects have global investors searching for havens. China represents a less conventional option with diversification benefits.

Alvin Cheng + 3 others | 4 April 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed resurrects Volckerism - but for how long?

The US central bank came out fighting after delivering its first rise in rates this cycle, but it is likely to be constrained by a cocktail of risks to growth

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds

The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.

Andrew McCaffery
Article 3 min read

Searching for safe havens amid a stagflation shock

High inflation and damaged growth will define the macro outlook for several quarters

Andrew McCaffery + 3 others | 8 March 2022

Salman Ahmed
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations

Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.

Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 3 March 2022

Henk-Jan Rikkerink
Blog 2 min read

Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage

Stagflation risks intensify as energy markets take centre stage

Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 3 March 2022

Steve Ellis
Article 3 min read

Russian and Ukrainian debt comes under pressure

Our base case from a fixed income perspective is now for a more severe and protracted conflict.

Steve Ellis | 24 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 1 min read

Cautious positioning required as Ukraine escalation adds to stagflationary risks

The overnight escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a worrying development with serious macro and market implications.

Hiten Savani
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Rising rates aren’t always bad for ‘low vol’ strategies

Rising bond yields don’t automatically mean bad news for low volatility strategies; understanding why requires a closer look at each cycle of rate increases.

Hiten Savani + 1 other | 17 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl

Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 3 min read

ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon

Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.

Claire Xiao
Blog 3 min read

China walks a familiar tightrope as it targets recovery

While most other major economies are moving to tighten, the construction-fueled stimulus that Beijing has sought to avoid is suddenly back on the cards.

Claire Xiao + 2 others | 4 February 2022

Patrick Graham
Article 1 min read

Chart Room: Covid recovery tops the list of themes for 2022

Latest survey of Fidelity analysts reveals companies' key concerns for the next 12 months.

Patrick Graham + 1 other | 3 February 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 3 min read

Fed turns from friend to foe

Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.

Shashank Manchanda
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is

Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.

Shashank Manchanda + 2 others | 27 January 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 4 min read

Catch-2022 policy dilemma hits markets

Central bank policy stance and geopolitical risks put pressure on markets.

Claire Xiao
Article 2 min read

China cuts rates despite solid GDP report

As China's cycle increasingly diverges from the West, the latest set of policy easing measures speaks to economic headwinds but also signals more stimulus.

Claire Xiao + 4 others | 17 January 2022

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch

Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering

The Fed finds flexibility in QE tapering timeline

Anna Stupnytska | 3 November 2021

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Article 2 min read

Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground

Fed signals a fast taper as 2022 becomes the new lift-off battleground

Eric Wong
Article 4 min read

Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time

A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.

Eric Wong + 3 others | 7 September 2021

Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team
Blog 2 min read

Fed disconnects timelines for tapering and rate rises

At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell confirmed that the test of "substantial further progress" on inflation has now been met.

Charlotte Harington
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve

The market sees risks that the Fed will not accommodate a large inflation overshoot, but we think the yield curve may have flattened too far.

Charlotte Harington + 3 others | 12 August 2021

Salman Ahmed
Blog 2 min read

Policy credibility remains key macro risk following hawkish Fed meeting

Chair Powell says Fed is considering beginning discussions on tapering.

Salman Ahmed | 17 June 2021

George Efstathopoulos
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish

China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.

George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 22 April 2021

Salman Ahmed
Article 2 min read

Fed acknowledges change in reaction function

Fed reiterates guidance and maintains asset purchase programme, despite a significant upgrade to growth and inflation projections.

Salman Ahmed | 17 March 2021

Max Stainton
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt

Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.

Max Stainton + 2 others | 25 February 2021

Fabio Riccelli
Blog 2 min read

Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?

In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.

Fabio Riccelli + 3 others | 28 January 2021

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

China bond defaults signal a coming of age as state safety net shrinks

Bond defaults by state-owned enterprises have rattled China’s onshore credit markets. We see this as an important if painful step in curtailing moral hazard.

Alvin Cheng + 1 other | 24 November 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Near-zero rates expected through 2023 amid Fed concern about the economy

Fed offers forward guidance following shift in inflation targeting framework.

Anna Stupnytska | 16 September 2020

Monica Li
Blog 4 min read

Chinese banks are due for national service

As governments around the world exhaust their policy arsenals to save economies, China is reaching for a secret weapon unrivaled by most countries.

Monica Li + 2 others | 31 July 2020

Stuart Rumble
Blog 1 min read

A heavy outlook for the US Dollar

The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 30 July 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Fed in a holding pattern, for now

Trajectory of the recovery remains uncertain despite better employment figures in May.

Anna Stupnytska | 10 June 2020

Alvin Cheng
Article 4 min read

A shelter from the storm, for now: China’s bond market set to open further

When global fixed income investors scrambled for cover last month, China’s onshore bond market was a rare haven with low volatility and no liquidity crunch.

Alvin Cheng + 5 others | 23 April 2020

Anthony Doyle
Blog 1 min read

Chart room: Japanification and the rise of the widow maker trade

Chart room: Japanification and the rise of the widow maker trade

Anthony Doyle + 2 others | 9 April 2020

Ming Gong
Blog 4 min read

Delayed demand making its return to China’s property market

New home sales are recovering faster than expected in China. This has big implications for domestic demand and the macroeconomic outlook.

Ming Gong + 2 others | 8 April 2020

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 4 min read

Bank of Japan’s coordinated easing signals more proactive asset purchases

Today’s move by the Bank of Japan to boost asset purchases underscores a globally coordinated effort by central banks to contain the coronavirus fallout.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 16 March 2020

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Blog 3 min read

The Fed reaches for the entire arsenal

The Fed reaches for the entire arsenal

Wen-Wen Lindroth | 15 March 2020

Tim Foster
Blog 1 min read

Fed dusts off crisis playbook with massive liquidity injection

Ultra-low interest rates and asset purchases will be with us for a long time yet.

Tim Foster | 12 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

ECB: Not another “whatever it takes” moment, but a smart move nonetheless

The ECB unveiled a targeted stimulus package but kept rates unchanged.

Anna Stupnytska | 12 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

UK Treasury and BOE unveil ‘comprehensive’ stimulus package to combat virus effects

BOE and Treasury action on the same day signals the policymakers’ preparedness to respond.

Anna Stupnytska | 11 March 2020

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Fed's emergency cut is a strong signal to markets

The US Federal Reserve has issued an emergency 50bps cut to allay coronavirus fears ahead of its monetary policy meeting in March.

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 3 March 2020

Lynda Zhou
Blog 4 min read

China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus

China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.

Lynda Zhou + 1 other | 4 February 2020

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Article 3 min read

Fed prolongs expansion for those left behind

Fed funds rate remains unchanged amid strong labour market.

Wen-Wen Lindroth + 1 other | 29 January 2020

Andrea Iannelli
Blog 3 min read

ECB’s Strategic Review gives investors plenty to think about

The ECB held interest rates steady, but the focus of the meeting was on the announcement of its new Strategic Review.

Andrea Iannelli | 23 January 2020

Andrea Iannelli
Blog 3 min read

Lagarde brings her “own style” to the ECB

Lagarde kept policy unchanged at the ECB

Andrea Iannelli + 1 other | 12 December 2019

Wen-Wen Lindroth
Blog 2 min read

Rates unchanged as Fed engineers soft landing

The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged as Chairman Jerome Powell says US economy is 'in a good place'

Wen-Wen Lindroth | 11 December 2019

Tim Foster
Article 2 min read

Fed cuts again but stays mute on future path

The US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the third cut this year. This week's meeting was hotly anticipated for any clues as to the further path of rates.

Tim Foster | 30 October 2019

Sajiv Vaid
Blog 2 min read

Low bond yields are here to stay, even if fiscal stimulus returns

Even if fiscal stimulus makes a return, we think low bond yields will stay because of central bank action and late-cycle effects

Sajiv Vaid | 30 October 2019

Fidelity International

Cool Heads: Another cut expected from the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time this year.

Fidelity International | 30 October 2019

Andrea Iannelli
Article 3 min read

European Central Bank: Goodbye Mario, good luck Christine

ECB leaves rates unchanged at Draghi's final meeting.

Andrea Iannelli | 24 October 2019

Paul Greer
Blog 2 min read

Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt

When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.

Paul Greer + 3 others | 15 October 2019

Romain Boscher
Blog 2 min read

Negative interest rates: a bold but dangerous experiment

In an environment of negative interest rates, it could be growth companies not negative yielding bonds, which are the 'safe' investment choice.

Romain Boscher | 14 October 2019

Alvin Cheng
Blog 3 min read

China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform

While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.

Alvin Cheng + 2 others | 2 October 2019

Sajiv Vaid
Blog 2 min read

BOE holds steady but case for rate cut is compelling

The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged but the case for an 'insurance cut' is compelling in the face of weak growth and Brexit uncertainty.

Sajiv Vaid | 19 September 2019

Paras Anand
Blog 3 min read

Fed’s broken policy dial could benefit Asia investors

Political pressure on the Fed to cut rates is only likely to increase.

Paras Anand | 19 August 2019

Andrea Iannelli
Blog 1 min read

US yield curve inverts for first time since 2008, but recession not imminent

While our fixed income team does not expect an imminent recession, the case for further rate cuts in the US is getting stronger and weighing on US yields.

Andrea Iannelli | 14 August 2019

Sajiv Vaid
Blog 1 min read

BoE: Holds rates steady amid Brexit uncertainty

We expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 bps by year-end

Sajiv Vaid | 1 August 2019

Tom Ackermans
Blog 1 min read

Fed opens the door to a further reduction as it makes 25 bps 'insurance' cut

After hiking nine times in the past four years, the Fed has reversed course

Tom Ackermans | 31 July 2019

Oscar Hutchinson
Blog 2 min read

Gold still has space to shine on

We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.

Oscar Hutchinson | 17 July 2019

Bill McQuaker
Blog 2 min read

Central banks keep the show on the road, for now

Equity and bond markets don’t agree on what we should expect for the second half of the year. How should investors position in light of these mixed signals?

Bill McQuaker | 26 June 2019

Kristian Atkinson
Blog 3 min read

Draghi’s dovish speech signals further central bank easing

The case for immediate easing by the Fed is however weak.

Kristian Atkinson | 19 June 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

The Fed remains firmly on hold

The overall message at the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting was clear and simple - it is firmly on hold for now.

Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 1 May 2019

Ian Samson
Blog 2 min read

EM outlook: For China and the Fed, old habits die hard

China and the US Federal Reserve are falling back on old habits, which should provide some desperately-needed comfort to emerging markets.

Ian Samson | 30 April 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Article 1 min read

The ECB plays ‘wait and see’

The European Central Bank kept policy unchanged at its April meeting, and reverted back to 'wait and see' mode

Anna Stupnytska | 10 April 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

Why the Fed pivoted and what happens next

The Fed's dovish tone might not last for long.

Anna Stupnytska | 29 March 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Article 1 min read

The Fed's message is solidly dovish; for now

The Fed stuck to its solidly dovish message in March, in line with market expectations. However, it risks leaving itself little room for manoeuvre.

Anna Stupnytska | 20 March 2019

Bryan Collins
Blog 3 min read

A Goldilocks moment for China’s monetary policy, but watch for more easing and bond index inclusion

Two events are driving the outlook for China fixed income- easing monetary conditions and the expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in benchmark indexes.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 14 March 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

ECB startles with dovish move

The central bank kept rates on hold and unveiled new cheap funding measures to boost the faltering Eurozone economy.

Anna Stupnytska | 7 March 2019

Eugene Philalithis
Blog 2 min read

Income and yield are not the same thing

Although higher rates imply higher income generation as yields rise, we have not seen income from coupons keep up with the rise in rates.

Eugene Philalithis | 17 January 2019

Martin Dropkin
Article 7 min read

The next recession: zombie killer

Zombie companies have grown in number since the financial crisis. The next recession should kill them off.

Martin Dropkin + 1 other | 11 January 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Challenging consensus: market fears of a US recession may be overdone

Markets may be overly pessimistic over an imminent US recession given the recent uptick in real wages.

Anna Stupnytska | 4 January 2019

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 2 min read

Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements

Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, with dovish elements

Anna Stupnytska | 19 December 2018

Bryan Collins
Blog 4 min read

China's easing has not been easy

China’s deleveraging drive has softened, but credit to private companies remains weak. Bigger banks could be pushed to step in.

Bryan Collins + 4 others | 20 November 2018

Paras Anand
Blog 1 min read

Midterms could be good for the US economy

Midterms could be good for the US economy

Paras Anand | 7 November 2018

Stuart Rumble
Blog 2 min read

As the BOJ stealthily normalises, the yen will follow

The BOJ appears to be stealthily normalising while keeping rates extremely low. But small steps for Japan’s central bank could be big steps for its currency.

Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 31 October 2018

David Buckle
Blog 3 min read

The Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis

Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis

David Buckle | 26 September 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

Further Fed tightening could prove too much for the rest of the world

The Fed will have to strike a more cautious tone, slowing the pace of tightening next year - but we are not there yet.

Anna Stupnytska | 26 September 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Article 3 min read

Global growth: running out of steam

Global growth, which has been led by the US, is losing momentum, while China is also cooling.

Anna Stupnytska | 3 September 2018

Paul Greer
Blog 3 min read

As global liquidity tightens, Argentina’s troubles will continue

Argentina markets will remain vulnerable because of specific challenges, but all emerging markets are suffering from tightening global liquidity.

Paul Greer | 30 August 2018

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 3 min read

No exit: Japanese banks continue to feel pain from BOJ’s easy policy

Japan’s banks need to innovate to thrive in the low interest environment rather than wait for the eventual end of the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policies.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 29 August 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

No surprises as the Fed sticks to the plan, for now

There were no surprises as the Fed stuck to the plan, and for good reason: data is strong and inflation on track.

Anna Stupnytska | 1 August 2018

Katsumi Ishibashi
Blog 2 min read

The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing

The Bank of Japan kept its easy monetary policy while tweaking its framework to give itself more flexibility, emphasising that normalisation is nowhere near.

Katsumi Ishibashi | 31 July 2018

Sajiv Vaid
Blog 3 min read

A BoE rate hike is an unnecessary risk

This August, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stand and deliver only their second interest rate rise in the past ten years.

Sajiv Vaid | 27 July 2018

Anna Stupnytska
Blog 1 min read

The ECB’s monetary policy is needlessly loose

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unnecessarily loose monetary policy may leave it out of options when the next downturn comes.

Anna Stupnytska | 27 July 2018

Paul Greer
Blog 2 min read

Turkey’s interest rate hold is a policy mistake

Turkey’s inaction on the benchmark interest rate is a major policy mistake, undoing much of the good of the rate rises in Q2.

Paul Greer | 24 July 2018

Curtis Evans
Video 4 min watch

Curtis Evans | 14 December 2017

David Buckle
Blog 6 min read

Buckle opinion: Fed raises rates; can't be many in 2018

David Buckle's opinion on the Fed reserve rates decision

David Buckle | 14 December 2017

David Buckle
Article 9 min read

Easy days could soon be over: central bank policy normalisation

Easy monetary policy could soon be over, with huge consequences for debt, asset prices, inflation and much else.

David Buckle + 2 others | 11 December 2017

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