OverviewMacroeconomics
Fidelity Answers: How should investors respond to a changing America?
Time for the euro? Buy gold? Or cash in a crisis where interest rates aren’t already at zero. The opportunities and risks of a period of profound volatility.
Talib Sheikh + 4 others | 14 April 2025
Tariffs pause. Now what?
A pause in tariffs has stabilised markets for the moment, but the ground has clearly shifted. Our focus from here is earnings expectations.
Niamh Brodie-Machura + 1 other | 11 April 2025
US tariffs are serious threat to global growth
The new US tariffs sound the death knell of globalisation. Markets have under-estimated and there are substantial risks to global growth as a result
Max Stainton + 4 others | 3 April 2025
Q2 Outlook Webinar: The post-trade trades
The long-US consensus trades with which markets started 2025 have been blown out of the water. Europe, China and a range of alternative plays take their place.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink + 2 others | 28 March 2025
Q2 Global Investment Outlook: The post-trade trades
A volatile start to the year has recalibrated markets. This invites a regionally diversified approach.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink + 1 other | 26 March 2025
Fed will wait and see on tariffs
March’s meeting saw the US Federal Reserve firmly in wait and see mode. Tariffs and growth are the issues.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 20 March 2025
US equities sell-off will create opportunities
Tariffs, funding freezes, and spending cuts have caused investors to reassess. The chances of stagflation have grown, but policy will stabilise.
Niamh Brodie-Machura + 1 other | 18 March 2025
All eyes on tariffs as Fed holds and ECB cuts
US and European central banks are now on different tracks, at least until the details of US trade policy become clearer.
Salman Ahmed + 1 other | 30 January 2025
Bigger in Japan
The BoJ presses on with rises in interest rates; the door is open for more.
Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 24 January 2025
Fed goes big but volatility ahead
The labour market has pushed the Fed into more aggressive action. What it does next still hangs in the balance.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 19 September 2024
Equities had a bumpy start to August. Investors should sit tight
After a bumpy start to August, there are now good reasons to expect a broader range of sectors will start playing a role in driving equities higher.
Niamh Brodie-Machura | 19 August 2024
US recession fears rise, but fundamentals remain resilient
There are good explanations for last week’s soft jobs data. Growth is unlikely to fall off a cliff, and a soft landing is still our most expected outcome.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 5 August 2024
Emboldened BOJ takes hawkish tilt
The Bank of Japan has set itself firmly on the path of further policy normalisation. But how far and fast it will go from here remains an open question.
Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 31 July 2024
Devil will be in the details after Chinese plenum
There were hints of a greater focus on growth from the Chinese leadership’s third plenum, but markets want to see more concrete steps to prop up the economy
Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 19 July 2024
UK election likely to spur an economic shift
The Labour Party's policies coupled with a more volatile political environment in Europe may prove an inflection point for UK assets
Fidelity International | 5 July 2024
2024 Q3 Asia Investment Outlook: Policy shifts give investors reasons for optimism
Stimulus and reforms that are addressing cyclical and structural issues should invigorate Asia’s markets.
Martin Dropkin + 1 other | 21 June 2024
2024 Q3 Investment Outlook: Easy does it
Risk looks attractive as economies across the globe remain strong. Some regions are starting to tread separate paths, uncovering idiosyncratic opportunities.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink + 1 other | 21 June 2024
Asia’s new bubble: Finding value in India’s IPO boom
Mumbai has overtaken Hong Kong as Asia's centre for IPOs. While India’s listing boom appears frothy, we still think there are smart investments to be made.
Amit Goel + 2 others | 11 June 2024
ECB keeps door open to further rate cuts
European policymakers are likely to cut interest rates again this year, although the risks to the economic outlook and to the euro’s value have faded.
Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 7 June 2024
Chart Room: Japan’s stock train leaves behind train stocks
Business is back on the rails for Japanese train companies, but their stock prices remain largely stuck in the Covid era.
Penn Bowers + 1 other | 31 May 2024
Embracing the ‘Korea discount’
South Korea’s bid to reform its stock market has been met with scepticism, but we see the initiative as a free call option in an already attractive market.
Taosha Wang + 2 others | 16 May 2024
ECB will cut soon, but US divergence can’t be ignored
The European Central Bank is now on course to cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve, but sooner or later it will be captive to events in the US
Max Stainton + 1 other | 11 April 2024
Chart Room: China’s sportswear sector on the right track
In China’s slowing economy, sportswear remains one of a small number of industries underpinned by solid domestic demand.
Alex Dong + 1 other | 4 April 2024
2024 Q2 Asia Investment Outlook: Steady as they grow
Major Asian economies are carefully steadying their ships as they sail into the second quarter, while domestic imbalances and geopolitical risks persist.
Lei Zhu + 1 other | 28 March 2024
2024 Q2 Investment Outlook: Timing matters
We believe the outlook for 2024 has brightened, but we caution that it won’t take much to spill over.
Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 28 March 2024
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
Fed hopes not to get cornered before June
Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 22 March 2024
BOJ: Time to turn positive
The Bank of Japan took an historic step in its March meeting, ending the era of negative interest rates. But the tone of the central bank was cautious overall.
Peiqian Liu | 19 March 2024
What investors should know about Asean’s ecommerce war
The ecommerce giants of Asean are largely mired in stiff competition and weak earnings. But we think their woes are just the growing pains of a young market.
Elroy Ng + 2 others | 11 March 2024
Lower targets, more stimulus for China
March’s National People’s Congress in China will almost certainly set a reduced growth target of 5 per cent.
Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 13 February 2024
For the Fed, the last mile is the hardest
US policymakers have cooled expectations of an interest rate cut in March, and there are still big risks on the road to a painless soft landing.
Anna Stupnytska + 2 others | 1 February 2024
ECB in no rush to cut
While the odds on a soft landing for the developed world are rising, European growth is sluggish and we think the ECB will soon be under pressure to cut rates
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 25 January 2024
Chart Room: Battle for the dragon’s share of China’s hotel market
The expansion of China’s top hotel brands may look foolhardy amid economic woes, but none of the giants can afford to fall behind in a consolidation phase.
Eric Zhu + 1 other | 18 January 2024
India’s hopes for solar dominance dimmed but not extinguished
Two years after setting 2030 solar targets, India is falling behind schedule, but a robust economy and thirst for energy will continue to fuel its solar boom.
Yi Hu | 21 December 2023
Fundamentals: US consumers are resilient, but for how long?
A soft-landing or a slide into recession? How US consumer spending slows in 2024 may be the difference between one and the other. We dig into the detail.
Patrick Graham + 1 other | 20 December 2023
The ups and downs: Charting 2023
Six charts that capture the economic make-up of 2023 - inflation, interest rates, and everything in between.
Toby Sims | 19 December 2023
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Fed deals its cards early on rates
Max Stainton + 1 other | 19 December 2023
Rich Pickings podcast: Outlook 2024
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity's heads of investment to discuss the investment outlook for 2024.
Richard Edgar + 8 others | 19 November 2023
Asia outlook: Riding the growth momentum
China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of Asian economies. But the growth story should continue in 2024.
Lei Zhu + 1 other | 17 November 2023
Outlook scenario 4: No landing
In a no landing scenario, US economic growth would continue to be resilient while Europe’s current slowdown would reverse.
Fidelity International | 17 November 2023
Outlook scenario 3: Balance sheet recession
A balance sheet recession would be marked by a deep and prolonged downturn across developed and emerging economies.
Fidelity International | 17 November 2023
Outlook scenario 2: Soft landing
A soft-landing scenario would involve a slightly below trend slowdown across major economies, with no major shocks to knock markets off track.
Fidelity International | 17 November 2023
Outlook scenario 1: Cyclical recession - our base case
A cyclical recession would see a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025.
Fidelity International | 17 November 2023
The economy in 2024: Something will give
If US and other developed world interest rates have not peaked already, they will do so soon. And growth will stall. We give four potential scenarios for 2024.
Salman Ahmed | 17 November 2023
Outlook 2024: More risk, higher yields, and four ways forward
Profound changes across economies and markets make forecasting unusually difficult in 2024. Instead, we offer four potential paths the world could take.
Andrew McCaffery | 17 November 2023
Rich Pickings podcast: Higher rates - is the transmission mechanism broken... or just delayed?
Richard Edgar is joined by Fidelity experts to discuss if the transmission mechanism of central bank rate setting is broken, or just delayed.
Steve Ellis + 5 others | 20 October 2023
Chart Room: China’s tourists tiptoe out again
Where tourists went and how they spent during China's first ‘Golden Week’ holiday since zero-Covid ended says a lot about their confidence and changing tastes.
Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 19 October 2023
Japan’s reflating economy is kindling new hopes
Following decades of price stagnation and declines, Japan’s push to bring back “good inflation” is finally bearing fruit. But how sustainable is it?
Edward Tajima + 3 others | 3 October 2023
Chart Room: Why China is all aglitter over gold
China’s onshore gold price premium has expanded, spurring cross-border arbitrage and calling for stronger policy measures to shore up confidence.
Karen Zhou + 2 others | 28 September 2023
Quarterly Outlook: Resilience, refinancing, and recession risk
Markets have proven resilient to the prospect of recession. That they will continue to do so is far from certain.
Andrew McCaffery | 27 September 2023
Fed holds the line, hopes for a soft landing
Chairman Powell has set his sights on a gentler slowdown, but the impact of higher effective interest rates may hit consumers and companies hard next year.
Max Stainton + 1 other | 21 September 2023
Chart Room: China’s heavy machine makers dig deeper overseas
China’s machinery firms are making new inroads abroad, seeking profitability that’s built to last as demand falls and competition intensifies at home.
Alex Dong | 20 September 2023
PBoC ups ante on moves to meet growth target
Chinese authorities are accelerating what to date has been a relatively incremental easing of policy to support growth. There will be more to come.
Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 18 September 2023
Chart Room: Building a bigger bloc of BRICS
With one country continuing to pull far more economic weight than everybody else, the significance of BRICS expansion will be more diplomatic than economic.
Paul Greer + 1 other | 13 September 2023
The cost of higher for longer
With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. But the economy may see a shock next year.
Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 4 September 2023
Chart Room: Watching for cracks amid pressure on China’s local government finances
Some of China’s local government financing vehicles are struggling to service their debts, but not all LGFVs are created equal.
Vanessa Chan + 2 others | 24 August 2023
Chart Room: Cost deflation, China’s latest export
China’s undershooting post-pandemic recovery has stoked fears of deflation. Our Analyst Survey indicates that businesses are bracing for cost reductions.
Monica Li + 1 other | 3 August 2023
Signs of a dovish tilt from China’s Politburo
China’s leaders have voiced support for the economy, which is moderating after an initial bounce from the re-opening.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 28 July 2023
No holidays for central banks: Where we think there’s more to come
A busy month for central banks delivered expected hikes in Europe and the US, but a surprise tweak to policy in Japan.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 28 July 2023
Chart Room: Cracks in credit will see gravity kick in
The evidence of strain in the financial system is growing amid a sharp tightening of credit conditions.
Aditya Khowala + 1 other | 7 July 2023
Chart Room: Why ‘work from anywhere’ doesn’t work everywhere
Our ESG Analyst Survey indicates that WFH is viewed favourably by most companies around the world. But there is one very big exception to the WFH trend: China.
Victoria Mio + 1 other | 28 June 2023
Selling like hot chilli crab: a look at Singapore’s local bond boom
While debt issuance has slowed around the world, the Singapore dollar bond market is in a pocket of growth driven by policy tailwinds and an influx of funds.
Lei Zhu + 3 others | 19 June 2023
BOJ: Patience is virtue
At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan has retained its dovish bias, and we believe markets will price in a lower possibility of an imminent exit from YCC.
Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 16 June 2023
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Central banks feel the heat of persistent inflation
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 15 June 2023
Fundamentals: When boring banking is better
Fundamentals: When boring banking is better
Michael Gaynor + 2 others | 30 May 2023
Chart Room: Retail therapy for Japan’s ‘lowflation’ headache
The Bank of Japan has struggled to convince the public that inflation will stick. But recent data shows there could be a shift in consumers’ mentality.
Peiqian Liu + 2 others | 18 May 2023
China + 1 = ASEAN: A winning formula
A pandemic, a war and geopolitical tensions have caused global firms to rethink their supply chains, and many are eyeing the ASEAN region.
Madeleine Kuang + 2 others | 15 May 2023
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Central banks fighting yesterday’s battles as credit crunch looms
Salman Ahmed + 1 other | 4 May 2023
Navigating the Polycrisis: A shift in the landscape
The perma-crisis that has coloured recent years has taken on new tones in the first months of 2023.
Salman Ahmed | 4 May 2023
Field Notes: Robots on the rise in China
As China grapples with a daunting demographic challenge, its industries are upping their game in automating production, a recent Fidelity field trip finds.
Reggie Pan | 3 May 2023
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
First Republic Bank and the outlook for the financial system
Lee Sotos + 3 others | 3 May 2023
Rich Pickings podcast: Preparing portfolios for climate risk
What impact will climate change have on portfolios?
Richard Edgar + 5 others | 3 May 2023
Chart Room: Getting China’s youth back to work
The job prospects are still gloomy for young people in China, and the picture may get worse before it gets better.
Peiqian Liu | 27 April 2023
Chart Room: What 80 years of data (and 11 recessions) say about today’s macro outlook
Historically, a tightening in financial conditions like the one that we have seen over the last year invariably led to a recession.
Max Stainton + 2 others | 20 April 2023
European commercial real estate remains more robust than US
European commercial real estate remains more robust than US
Kim Politzer + 1 other | 11 April 2023
Chart Room: Will the renminbi’s stable attraction woo Asian partners?
While the market traditionally focuses on the renminbi’s performance against the US dollar, we think its relationship with Asian peers deserves more attention.
George Efstathopoulos + 2 others | 3 April 2023
Chart Room: Is the US labour market ready to crack?
The latest survey of Fidelity sector analysts shows expectations of layoffs by US and European companies over the next year.
Lucas Klein + 3 others | 30 March 2023
Fed hikes into the banking storm as hard landing risks rise
As expected, the impact of the past fortnight’s banking troubles was writ large on the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. But it is still raising rates.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 22 March 2023
Suisse roll-up
An historic last-minute takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS offers an imperfect solution as regulators seek to contain broader systemic risk.
Steve Ellis + 2 others | 21 March 2023
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Chart Room: Bank blow-ups and tight labour markets make a hard day’s night for the Fed
Max Stainton + 2 others | 17 March 2023
A hawkish ECB stays the course despite market turmoil
The ECB stuck to its 50 basis point hike despite financial stability concerns. Tightening credit could hit the real economy earlier, and harder, than expected.
Anna Stupnytska | 16 March 2023
Rich Pickings podcast: Looking for cracks in the system after SVB
After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Richard Edgar is joined by some of Fidelity's experts to discuss the fallout.
Gita Bal + 5 others | 15 March 2023
Inflation’s bite won’t spoil China’s recovery
Spiralling prices were a headache for much of the world in 2022, and some are asking if it’s China’s turn.
Taosha Wang + 2 others | 13 March 2023
Chart Room: Why fixed-asset investment is on the move in China
Investment remains a major driver of China’s economy, but priorities are shifting from property to manufacturing.
Peiqian Liu + 1 other | 9 March 2023
China’s property market sparks to life with signs of recovery
Homebuyers are finally back in action in China. We see a rebound in sales activity in mega cities, although consumer confidence remains fickle.
Victoria Mio + 3 others | 9 March 2023
How to invest for China’s next phase
How to invest for China’s next phase
Andrew McCaffery | 1 March 2023
How far can ‘revenge spending’ consumers carry China’s economic rebound?
Chinese consumers’ holiday shopping provided evidence of pent-up demand. With more policy support, consumers will set their sights on bigger ticket items.
Lynda Zhou + 1 other | 13 February 2023
Chart Room: A hiring spree on the horizon in China
While much of the global economy appears at risk of recession, China is revving up a rebound that’s set to jumpstart the job market.
Reggie Pan + 2 others | 9 February 2023
Fidelity's Anne Richards on her takeaways from Davos
Fidelity International's Anne Richards gives her takeaways from the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Anne Richards + 2 others | 20 January 2023
Inflation is slowing, the Fed may too
The opening data salvos of 2023 add to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down on raising interest rates
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 16 January 2023
Fundamentals: US oil majors finally get serious about clean energy
Fundamentals: US oil majors finally get serious about clean energy
Paul Gooden + 3 others | 5 January 2023
A new golden age for China’s investment sector
China’s investment and wealth management industry is embracing a golden age. The onshore markets will remain an attractive long-term investment destination.
Senan Yuen + 1 other | 23 December 2022
Rich Pickings podcast: Your questions answered
Fidelity experts answer listeners investment questions for this festive special of Rich Pickings.
Aditya Khowala + 4 others | 22 December 2022
Chart Room: Looking back on an inflationary Catch-2022
Eight charts that capture the inflationary torment of 2022 and shine a light on what’s ahead.
Yi Hu + 1 other | 18 December 2022
ECB rates stance raises risks of financial instability for 2023
If the ECB matches its hawkish rhetoric with policy action, concerns about the bloc's periphery may return, adding to concerns for investors next year.
Anna Stupnytska | 16 December 2022
Fed meeting: Powell provides another hawkish push
The dip in headline inflation numbers may have led the US Federal Reserve to slow down on policy in December, but longer-term risks to growth are piling up.
Salman Ahmed | 15 December 2022
Fidelity Analyst Survey: Inflation starts to peak
November’s survey of Fidelity’s 150 sector analysts highlights the pain businesses and households are experiencing, but that inflation is already easing.
Fiona O'Neill + 4 others | 7 December 2022
New world, new playbook
We move into 2023 in a changed world, and the opportunities and challenges will be different for investors going forward.
Salman Ahmed | 23 November 2022
US midterms and a history of stock market gains
The division of power after US midterm elections has led to calmer stock markets and positive investment returns. 2023 may yet prove more of an exception.
Andrew McCaffery | 18 November 2022
Outlook 2023: Download the assets
Find Fidelity International's full 2023 Investment Outlook here
Fidelity International | 11 November 2022
Asia’s shifting growth model
Will Asian central banks continue to dance to the Fed’s tune?
Martin Dropkin + 2 others | 11 November 2022
Macro 2023: What happens next depends on the Fed
The global economy continues to face a confluence of challenges heading into 2023. A recession is likely in the US and near certain in Europe and the UK
Salman Ahmed | 11 November 2022
Overview: Rates overshoot risks inflation bust
Inflation has dogged markets this year, but there is a risk that overtightening by central banks will trigger a sharp recession, an 'inflation bust'
Andrew McCaffery | 11 November 2022
Bonds are back in town
For over a decade, one of the main cards in investors’ pack - solid and steadily yielding government bonds - has been off the table. That era has ended.
Steve Ellis | 7 November 2022
Fed seeks to dampen ‘pivot mania’
Fighting inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s sole objective, with no pivot in sight.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 3 November 2022
ECB doves back in charge despite jumbo hike
The European Central Bank's 75 basis point hike in October may be its last jumbo move as the threat of recession looms large over the euro area.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 27 October 2022
A healthy economy remains key to China’s goals
A healthy economy remains key to China’s goals
Andrew McCaffery | 24 October 2022
Chart Room: US housing dip may hit sentiment hard
US real estate was at the centre of the financial crash in 2008. The US housing sector is back in focus again as unaffordability returns to peaks from 2005-7
Aditya Khowala + 2 others | 13 October 2022
Q4 Asia Investment Outlook: Potential bright spot amid a challenging winter
Asia is insulated to a degree from the struggles facing Europe, and though it faces its own problems, we are turning more positive on the region.
Andrew McCaffery | 11 October 2022
Navigating the strong dollar fallout
The dollar's gains are sending ructions through financial markets. We look at where and how the pressures are starting to be felt and what might halt the rise.
Fidelity International | 7 October 2022
Q4 Investment Outlook: Into the unknown
Fidelity International's Q4 Investment Outlook looks at the increasing likelihood of a hard landing.
Andrew McCaffery | 7 October 2022
The Fed’s dilemma in three charts
The risk that the Fed will go too far in trying to bring inflation under control is becoming more acute.
Steve Ellis + 1 other | 30 September 2022
Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe
Right-wing Italian coalition brings more risks in Europe
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 29 September 2022
UK macro under stress
The new UK government unveiled the promised "mini budget" last Friday that slashed taxes across the board.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 26 September 2022
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
Fed matches hawkish rhetoric with hawkish action
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 21 September 2022
Watch where you step as defaults set to rise
Fidelity’s projected credit spread premium model suggests high yield investors may be taking on more risk than they are being paid for.
Steve Ellis + 2 others | 20 September 2022
Chart Room: China takes own path in a tightening world
China is bucking the trend towards higher interest rates, and the resulting yield divergence has huge implications for bond investors and currency markets.
Taosha Wang + 2 others | 15 September 2022
ECB hawks rule, for now
While guidance remains hawkish on further interest rate hikes into 2023, implementing such a path will be hard in practice.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 8 September 2022
Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time
Chart Room: Interest rates won’t fix the euro’s problems this time
Ario Emami Nejad | 7 September 2022
Chair Powell bares his inflation teeth
Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns against loosening monetary policy early, noting that interest rates will have to keep rising to bring inflation under control.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 26 August 2022
Chart Room: The plunge in US consumer sentiment
The soaring cost of living has pushed US consumer sentiment to an all-time low.
Rick Patel | 11 August 2022
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more
A dovish hike but Fed may be forced to do more as labour market remains strong
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 27 July 2022
ECB hikes 50bp but window to hike further is closing
The ECB finally raises interest rates
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 21 July 2022
Q3 Asia Investment Outlook: China recovery likely as restrictions ease
Asia stands in a relatively strong position amid a global reset in markets.
Andrew McCaffery | 13 July 2022
China’s property downturn may have found a floor
The government’s will to reform a wayward real estate industry is balanced against the more urgent task of reviving a slowing economy.
Ming Gong + 3 others | 12 July 2022
The ingredients are there for a wage-price spiral
After the surge in inflation, will wages follow? Our analysts think they will.
Fiona O'Neill + 2 others | 8 July 2022
Q3 Investment Outlook: The Great Reset
Central banks have tried to strike a balance between reducing inflation by tightening financial conditions and mitigating the impact on economic growth.
Andrew McCaffery | 7 July 2022
Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation
Chart room: Japan is avoiding the worst of supply-side inflation
George Efstathopoulos | 23 June 2022
Chart Room: Supercharged commodities spell a regime change for investing
Demand for real assets neglected in the pandemic could be set to surge as the world shifts to a new, sustainable paradigm, but there will also be more pain
Aditya Khowala + 2 others | 16 June 2022
Fed delivers on the hint - hard landing risks have risen
The Fed delivered on hint to raise rates by 75bp to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 15 June 2022
ECB: Too much too soon could be a riskier strategy
The European Central Bank lays out its tightening path.
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
Chart Room: Expectations around rising input costs are starting to moderate
Gita Bal + 1 other | 9 June 2022
Big brands need to clean up on plastics
As governments get to work on a global treaty on plastics, we are pressing big brands to deliver real world solutions to one of the planet’s biggest challenges
Alexander Laing + 4 others | 23 May 2022
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
The last of the doves: BoJ unlikely to change course anytime soon
George Efstathopoulos | 19 May 2022
Now and zen: Japan’s quiet rise
Inflation may be a scourge elsewhere, but Japan is unruffled. Instead, the world’s third-largest economy is showcasing its appeal to investors.
Miyuki Kashima + 1 other | 15 May 2022
Chart Room: As others hike rates, can China’s easing policy remain a cut above?
Cuts to the reserve requirement ratio remain China’s monetary policy weapon of choice. How they are wielded highlights the tightrope policymakers must walk.
Leia Ma + 3 others | 12 May 2022
50, not 75, is the new 25 - Temporary relief or start of a pivot?
While the Fed will likely hike less than market expectations, we expect the hawkish stance to remain for now.
Re-globalisation in the age of Asia's supply chain crunch
Even the best-laid plans across the global manufacturing industry haven’t kept pace with a swiftly evolving siege of pressures on supply chains.
Ben Li + 5 others | 28 April 2022
Chart Room: Three structural factors making for stickier inflation
We don't expect global inflation rates to remain at today's levels, but we see several medium-term factors that should keep upward pressure on inflation.
Timothy Foster + 1 other | 27 April 2022
Q2 Investment Outlook: The “Grand Chessboard” reconfigured; stagflation risks intensify
The global order is reconfigured and stagflation risks intensify.
Andrew McCaffery | 10 April 2022
Chart Room: Pole position for China’s electric autos
Despite rising materials costs, supply bottlenecks, and cloudy global macro conditions, China’s electric vehicle sector still looks charged for growth.
Eric Tse + 3 others | 6 April 2022
China as a new safe haven?
Looming stagflation and war effects have global investors searching for havens. China represents a less conventional option with diversification benefits.
Alvin Cheng + 3 others | 4 April 2022
Titanium and planes: Ukraine conflict spells new hit for global supply chains
The invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns in Asia signal more disruption for corporate supply chains, just as companies thought they were recovering from Covid-19
Fiona O'Neill | 4 April 2022
Multi-asset view: More damage in the pipeline
The direct impact of the war in Ukraine seems to have been priced in for now, and stock markets had a relatively strong week. However, we are still cautious.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 29 March 2022
Chart Room: Long-term tailwinds still in play for renewables
The current pressure on Europe to break its dependency on Russian gas has strengthened the long-term need for green infrastructure.
Louise Fribourg | 23 March 2022
Stagflationary dynamics still in the background
As the conflict in Ukraine moves into its fifth week, volatility looks set to continue and the outlook is marred by the threats to growth
Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 22 March 2022
Remapping China risks
Amid rising investor uncertainty over China-related risks, we assess what’s changed and what hasn’t in the outlook for China’s markets and macro policy.
Salman Ahmed + 3 others | 21 March 2022
Chart Room: Ukraine war adds to inflation and brings further supply chain woes
As the appalling human cost of the war in Ukraine continues to grow, the knock-on effects for the global economy are also becoming clearer.
Fiona O'Neill + 4 others | 17 March 2022
High near-term uncertainty keeps us cautious
Lockdowns in China and the risk of recession in Europe are adding to the list of uncertainties facing investors.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 16 March 2022
A time for cool heads as the world order shifts
Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised fears of profound fissures in the global economic and geopolitical balance, while casting scrutiny on China’s stance.
Andrew McCaffery | 16 March 2022
ECB faces huge dilemma as Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds
The ECB’s accelerated reduction in asset purchases came as a surprise. There may be more changes to come.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 15 March 2022
Chart Room: Russia’s war in Ukraine is making metals more precious at any price
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing severe disruption to European commodity markets, exacerbating low inventories and threatening outright shortages.
James Richards + 2 others | 10 March 2022
Markets shift as Ukraine consequences spread
While the humanitarian impact of the war in Ukraine grows by the day, the economic effects are also mushrooming
Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 9 March 2022
Searching for safe havens amid a stagflation shock
High inflation and damaged growth will define the macro outlook for several quarters
Andrew McCaffery + 3 others | 8 March 2022
Chart Room: Ukraine war cuts rate hike expectations
Rate expectations have dipped downwards in Europe and the US, but we expect the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish narrative for now.
Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 3 March 2022
Analyst Survey 2022: China goes its own way
After being "first in, first out" of the pandemic, China is showing signs of weaker management confidence.
Yi Hu | 18 February 2022
Analyst Survey 2022: Japan outlook is still positive but cycle is maturing
Managements at Japanese firms are largely positive but the country may be further on in the cycle than elsewhere.
Chuin Wei Yap | 18 February 2022
Analyst Survey 2022: Inflation is back, but will it last?
Analysts expect price pressures to be higher in 2022, posing risks businesses haven't seen for over a decade.
Gita Bal + 1 other | 18 February 2022
Chart Room: Fingers in the punch bowl
Central bankers seeking to deploy rate hikes against inflation risk collateral damage as tighter policy threatens already swollen debt servicing costs.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team + 2 others | 10 February 2022
ECB joins the hawkish bandwagon
Hawkish pivot gives the Governing Council more policy flexibility.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 4 February 2022
China walks a familiar tightrope as it targets recovery
While most other major economies are moving to tighten, the construction-fueled stimulus that Beijing has sought to avoid is suddenly back on the cards.
Claire Xiao + 2 others | 4 February 2022
Chart Room: Covid recovery tops the list of themes for 2022
Latest survey of Fidelity analysts reveals companies' key concerns for the next 12 months.
Patrick Graham + 1 other | 3 February 2022
Fed turns from friend to foe
Pace and extent of tightening cycle depends on the inflation dynamics and the terminal level of real rates the economy and markets can digest.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 27 January 2022
Chart Room: Home is where the supply shortage is
Supply has never looked tighter in the US housing market. Construction backlogs persist and prices climb as homebuyers appear undeterred by looming rate hikes.
Shashank Manchanda + 2 others | 27 January 2022
Catch-2022 policy dilemma hits markets
Central bank policy stance and geopolitical risks put pressure on markets.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 26 January 2022
China cuts rates despite solid GDP report
As China's cycle increasingly diverges from the West, the latest set of policy easing measures speaks to economic headwinds but also signals more stimulus.
Claire Xiao + 4 others | 17 January 2022
Hawkish Fed enters 2022 with a catch
Three rate hikes in 2022 could be a challenge.
Fidelity International Global Macro & Asset Allocation Team | 16 December 2021
ESGenius: Greening ‘Made in China’
While domestic consumption of sustainable products remains nascent, China’s exporters are tapping into demand for ‘green’ goods around the world.
Victoria Mio + 4 others | 15 December 2021
Chart Room: Fidelity quant indicator points to risk off
Fidelity’s Risk Aversion Indicator has quickly moved higher over the past few weeks and now recommends taking risk off the table.
Rahul Srivatsa | 9 December 2021
Chart Room: When it pays to consider low volatility strategies
In the face of a riskier macro environment, strategies designed to minimise volatility may find their time to shine.
Daniel Swift + 1 other | 2 December 2021
Disorderly transition remains likely, despite COP pledges
A divergent net-zero trajectory seems to be taking shape, with countries adopting different approaches.
Salman Ahmed + 1 other | 23 November 2021
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Demographics
China’s labour pool is shrinking as the population ages. How people save and invest signals challenges and opportunities for China’s pension system.
Paras Anand + 10 others | 23 November 2021
Waiting for more certainty
We are optimistic about equities over the next 12 to 18 months. Growth and earnings will be respectable but momentum is slowing.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 19 November 2021
The Catch-22 dynamic
In 2022 the major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect.
Salman Ahmed | 19 November 2021
The policy paradox
2021 brought the recovery many had hoped for. But no one could describe it as ‘getting back to normal’.
Andrew McCaffery | 19 November 2021
Fidelity leaders discuss the outlook for 2022
Fidelity International’s Anne Richards and Andrew McCaffery on the outlook for 2022
Anne Richards + 2 others | 19 November 2021
Fidelity leaders discuss the outlook for 2022
Fidelity International's Anne Richards and Andrew McCaffery on the outlook for 2022
Anne Richards + 2 others | 18 November 2021
Waiting for more certainty
We are optimistic about equities over the next 12 to 18 months. Growth and earnings will be respectable but momentum is slowing.
Henk-Jan Rikkerink | 18 November 2021
The Catch-22 dynamic
In 2022 the major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect.
Salman Ahmed | 18 November 2021
The policy paradox
2021 brought the recovery many had hoped for. But no one could describe it as ‘getting back to normal’.
Andrew McCaffery | 18 November 2021
Chart Room: Net zero puts oil on a rollercoaster ride
The race to decarbonise is constraining investment in long-cycle energy projects.
Randy Cutler | 28 October 2021
Carbon pricing is coming but watch out for greenflation
Carbon pricing is an inescapable tool in the race to net zero, according to Fidelity International’s latest Analyst Survey.
Terry Raven + 2 others | 27 October 2021
Chart Room: Digging into China’s GDP growth
A sharp decline in excavator utilisation reflects China’s property-and-infrastructure-induced slowdown, but it also boosts the case for strong policy response.
Mo Ji + 3 others | 21 October 2021
Chart Room: Fidelity Leading Indicator points to contraction
After a summer slowdown, the latest Fidelity Leading Indicator is forecasting a tougher winter.
Louise Fribourg + 3 others | 14 October 2021
The Investor's Guide to China podcast: Regulation
How should investors look at a pick-up in regulatory activity that has affected some of China’s biggest and most dynamic companies?
Paras Anand + 7 others | 13 October 2021
Chart Room: Is inflation here to stay?
Companies face a mix of transitory and structural inflationary pressures, according to Fidelity International’s latest analyst survey.
Terry Raven + 1 other | 7 October 2021
Chart Room: The kitchen gets hotter for China’s gadget makers
Demographics are weighing on China’s kitchen appliance segment, but competition is heating up at the higher end of the market.
Shing Zhu + 2 others | 30 September 2021
Time to look beyond Evergrande and China’s ‘too big to fail’ era
Property giant China Evergrande’s woes are better understood as a controlled explosion, rather than an unexpected disaster.
Terrence Pang + 3 others | 24 September 2021
Chart Room: The energy rally could run out of steam
Oil and natural gas prices could start to moderate as the outlook for demand weakens and supply looks set to increase.
Louise Fribourg | 23 September 2021
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts temper expectations for margin growth
Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey suggests that the outlook for margins is moderating from elevated levels.
Terry Raven + 1 other | 16 September 2021
Asia eyes a tantrum-free taper this time
A faster-than-expected tapering by the Federal Reserve remains a risk for Asian bond markets, but investors have been reassured by the latest policy signals.
Eric Wong + 3 others | 7 September 2021
Chart Room: US restaurants devour record receipts amid rebound
A resurgent desire to eat out has propelled monthly US restaurant sales above pre-pandemic levels. Despite challenges, we see a long runway of recovery ahead.
Jay Kim + 2 others | 2 September 2021
A podium moment for Japan’s markets, too?
Japan stocks have long been consigned to tactical trading by global investors, but positive catalysts are emerging in a post-Covid inflationary world.
Paras Anand | 29 August 2021
Chart Room: India eyes a bigger slice of export markets
Rapid income growth means more Indian households are buying their first mod cons, while government policies aim to turn India into a major exporter of them.
Amit Goel + 1 other | 26 August 2021
Chart Room: The value rally has further to go
Chart Room: The value rally has further to go
Matthew Quaife | 22 July 2021
Macau rebound a test case for China’s outbound travel
The ‘Las Vegas of the East’ is betting its long-standing travel bubble with mainland China can endure.
Alex Zhang + 2 others | 5 July 2021
Chart Room: Stronger for longer for China’s renminbi?
Expectations for further renminbi appreciation have risen, but we think short-term gains could be capped from here.
Morgan Lau + 3 others | 10 June 2021
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect inflationary pressures to keep rising for now
Inflationary pressures are picking up, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.
Terry Raven + 1 other | 3 June 2021
Chart Room: China’s EV industry is charged for growth
The combination of falling battery costs and rising adoption rates means China's EV industry is charged for growth.
Sherry Qin + 3 others | 26 May 2021
Chart Room: An uneven supercycle for commodities?
Most commodity prices have been strong this year, spurring talk of a potential supercycle. But the returns could be more dispersed from here.
Louise Fribourg + 3 others | 20 May 2021
Chart Room: Rapid reopening drives inflation higher
US headline consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in 13 years due to positive base effects, rising energy prices and the reopening of the economy.
Tim Foster + 1 other | 13 May 2021
Chart Room: China has fewer reasons to be hawkish
China's short-end rates remain low despite earlier expectations for monetary tightening.
George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 22 April 2021
Why India’s ‘fallen angel’ risk is rising
India’s ballooning debt levels amid a structural growth slowdown have raised the risks of an imminent downgrade by credit ratings agencies.
Nathan Sribalasundaram + 2 others | 19 April 2021
Chart Room: Equity volatility eases as Treasury yields rise
The VIX has fallen below a key technical level, suggesting a new wave of investor optimism.
Eugene Philalithis + 2 others | 15 April 2021
Chart Room: EM outperformance could be sustained, if commodities are a guide
This week’s Chart Room shows the historical correlation of EM equities with commodities, which suggests that the breakout could be sustained.
Nick Price + 1 other | 8 April 2021
Chart Room: Energy and industrials sectors to bounce back in 2021
Revenue growth this year could be strongest in the sectors worst affected by Covid-19, according to Fidelity International’s latest monthly analyst survey.
Terry Raven + 1 other | 1 April 2021
Flows vs friction
Growth opportunities in post-pandemic Asia are set to propel a long-term boom in equity capital markets, as the region draws in ever greater inflows.
Paras Anand | 17 March 2021
Reflation revives outlook for UK equities
Signs of reflation are sparking hopes that UK equities will benefit from a vaccine-led reopening of the economy.
George Efstathopoulos | 4 March 2021
China sentiment points to sustained lead in global recovery
Management confidence at Chinese companies is notably higher about the year ahead, as China stages a “first in, first out” recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
Yi Hu | 1 March 2021
Deep dive on Japan: exporters bolstered by China recovery
Earnings and margins set to grow among Japanese exporters, especially those with large exposure to China.
Bob Chen | 1 March 2021
Market questions central bank credibility
Markets are testing central banks’ resolve to keep rates low.
Salman Ahmed | 26 February 2021
Chart Room: Staying afloat amid a rising tide of debt
Central banks have been playing a key role in keeping higher debt loads affordable.
Max Stainton + 2 others | 25 February 2021
Chart Room: Risk-on and on, with caveats
Caution and careful positioning are important from here, based on the latest readings from Fidelity’s risk aversion indicator.
Rahul Srivatsa + 2 others | 10 February 2021
What’s ahead for China’s markets in the Year of the Ox
Investors keen to see whether China’s bull market can keep charging ahead in the lunar Year of the Ox will be focused on recovery and monetary policy.
Victoria Mio + 3 others | 7 February 2021
Chart Room: Emerging markets and the reopening trade
Emerging EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and Latin American stocks are particularly well positioned to reap the benefits of reopening.
Anthony Doyle + 1 other | 4 February 2021
Chart Room: The return of the value super-cycle?
In this week’s Chart Room, we look at both sides of the long-standing debate between value and growth investment styles, as seen from both Europe and China.
Fabio Riccelli + 3 others | 28 January 2021
China, the West and the rest: how vaccine rollouts are progressing
With little fanfare, China is firing on all cylinders to vaccinate tens of millions of people, even as domestic spread of the virus appears mild.
Yuanlin Lang + 1 other | 28 January 2021
Chart Room: After the Gold Rush
Is it time to take profits in gold?
Stuart Rumble + 1 other | 21 January 2021
January FLI update: Fiscal good news offsets near-term softening
The FLI Cycle Tracker remains in the ‘top-right’ quadrant with growth above trend and improving, albeit momentum has softened for a second month.
Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 18 January 2021
Chart Room: A liquidity tide for the record books
2020 brought us new high-water marks in the US for both money supply growth and the personal savings rate.
Steve Ellis | 13 January 2021
Chart Room: Chinese stocks, playing catchup, finally retrace 2015 highs
But the rally in China’s main onshore index still lags its US and global counterparts.
George Efstathopoulos + 2 others | 7 January 2021
Reflationary thesis strengthens as Democrats win slim Senate majority
Reflationary thesis strengthens as Democrats win slim Senate majority
Salman Ahmed | 7 January 2021
Brexit agreement: A respite from uncertainty
What investors are looking at after UK exits the European Union
Salman Ahmed | 4 January 2021
New survey finds silver linings to China’s pension challenges
As China faces the formidable task of building a private pension industry from scratch, it can count on the blessing of residents’ financial wellness.
Daisy Ho | 22 December 2020
Chart Room: Weakening dollar gives emerging markets a shot in the arm
Emerging markets may be helped further along by the weaker outlook for the US dollar.
Anthony Doyle + 3 others | 10 December 2020
Unlocking India’s structural opportunities: 10 charts
Reforms and new infrastructure paving the way for manufacturing investment and employment will be key to unlocking India’s next stage of development.
Amit Goel + 2 others | 9 December 2020
Macro view 2021: Debt, the elephant in the room
As policymakers and investors grapple with their new reality, the elephant in the room they’ll have to confront will be how to manage the heavy public debt.
Salman Ahmed + 2 others | 27 November 2020
Outlook 2021 overview: Will the reality match the optimism?
Balancing optimism with caution as we move into 2021.
Andrew McCaffery | 27 November 2020
Chart Room: The clear link between ESG and returns
How have stocks that scored high for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors held up amid the Covid-19 fallout?
Jenn-Hui Tan + 3 others | 12 November 2020
China takes aim at trash
A massive nationwide effort is underway to improve China's waste management systems.
Bertrand Lecourt + 3 others | 11 November 2020
Fidelity Leading Indicator extends strong momentum of recovery
FLI-implied activity appears to be heading to levels only slightly below the pre-COVID peak, despite pockets of impact from renewed mobility restrictions.
Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 11 November 2020
Chart Room: Some sectors may be set for a margin squeeze
The latest reading from our monthly analyst survey shows which companies are struggling with inflationary pressure but also weaker pricing power.
Gita Bal + 4 others | 5 November 2020
US election outcomes: Implications for growth and policy
US election Outcomes: Implications for growth and policy
Salman Ahmed + 1 other | 4 November 2020
Growth targets take a backseat in China’s new economic plan
Domestic consumption and technology growth will be prioritised as the government reveals overarching guidelines for the country’s 14th five-year plan.
Lynda Zhou + 2 others | 30 October 2020
Chart Room: Correlations boil and bubble 🎃 and may spell toil and trouble 🦇
In this follow-up special Halloween edition of Chart Room, we look at how correlations are casting a spell over markets.
George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 29 October 2020
Chart Room: Government debt climbs to spooky heights
In this special Halloween edition Chart Room (part 1 of 2), we look at the frightening levels of government debt around the world.
Anthony Doyle + 2 others | 22 October 2020
Chart Room: Why growth still has room to grow in China equities
The valuation premium for China growth stocks versus value stocks hit a new all-time high, lifted by the consumer, tech and healthcare sectors.
Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 15 October 2020
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows record short-term growth momentum
All sectors are exhibiting significant strength, as policymakers seek to bridge economies to the hoped-for 2021 vaccine rollout.
Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 9 October 2020
Chart room: European cyclicals vulnerable if manufacturing data moderates
Any moderation in the growth of new manufacturing orders could make cyclicals vulnerable to a de-rating.
Natalie Briggs + 2 others | 8 October 2020
Swinging 60s inflation pattern due a comeback
The years between 1964-75, a time of fiscal expansion and low rates, shows why inflation might come back faster than some think.
Charlotte Harington | 7 October 2020
Chart Room: Is disinflation lurking around the corner?
In a bullish signal, the bond market’s short-term expectations for US inflation are back near pre-crisis levels. But are investors being overly optimistic?
George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 24 September 2020
Chart Room: Emerging market currencies lag on inflation risks
EM countries are using some of the same monetary and fiscal measures as developed markets. But this could add to rising inflation and currency weakness.
George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 September 2020
Fidelity Leading Indicator signals broad-based recovery
Four out of five FLI sectors are experiencing both growth and acceleration, with only Consumer and Labour lagging.
Louise Fribourg + 1 other | 8 September 2020
Chart Room: China’s Covid rebound puts the ‘V’ in investment
Fixed asset investment (FAI) in China has recovered to its pre-Covid levels of growth, with infrastructure and property driving the nation’s broader economy.
Crystal Cui + 3 others | 3 September 2020
GEARs: Bursting through the ceiling?
Fidelity International’s GEAR (Gauges of Economic Activity in Real Time) activity indicators continue to rebound strongly.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 August 2020
A heavy outlook for the US Dollar
The relentless spread of Covid-19 across the US and improving risk sentiment elsewhere is crimping demand for the safe-haven reserve currency.
Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 30 July 2020
With nowhere to go, Chinese tourists spend closer to home
Most travel destinations remain off-limits, and as Chinese people’s savings have increased, so has their pent-up demand and desire to treat themselves.
Hyomi Jie + 2 others | 28 July 2020
Using gold to hedge an extreme world
Gold can act as a useful hedge against future financial distress and potential selloffs in risk assets
Tigran Manukyan | 27 July 2020
Fidelity CIO Outlook Q3: Nearing the limit
Markets will struggle to surpass second quarter rebound.
Andrew McCaffery + 4 others | 27 July 2020
Landmark EU deal may lead to better economic outcomes
EU Recovery Fund marks new chapter for Union.
Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 21 July 2020
Chart Room: Why China government bonds have underperformed other markets
China government bond yields are diverging from other major government bond markets.
George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 15 July 2020
Chart Room: Chinese consumers’ growing preference for local brands
The Covid-19 experience is spurring changes in behavior among Chinese consumers. Among these is a growing preference for domestic brands over foreign ones.
Hyomi Jie + 2 others | 9 July 2020
Chart Room: Asian equities diverge, creating opportunities
The difference in performance between equity markets in East Asia and South Asia (India, ASEAN nations) is the largest in nearly 15 years.
Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 2 July 2020
Chart room: US employment may have begun to recover, but there’s a long way to go
Employment has plunged to a deeper trough in 2020 than in previous recessions
Toby Gibb + 1 other | 25 June 2020
Elections in the time of coronavirus and recession
Elections in the time of coronavirus and recession
Aditya Khowala | 23 June 2020
GEARs: China roars while the global economy snores
Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real time (GEARs), a proxy for three-month annualised growth, improved this month but remain in extreme hibernation.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2020
Chart room: Despite a recent rally, high yield bonds still look cheap
For US high yield, valuations look historically cheap on a relative basis - especially when compared to equities.
Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 18 June 2020
Dislocation, dislocation, dislocation: Opportunities in UK real estate
Opportunities in UK real estate amid Covid-19
Kim Politzer | 15 June 2020
Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices
Inflation outlook: Disinflation for now, but future depends on policy choices
Anna Stupnytska | 12 June 2020
Chart room: Another false dawn for value stocks?
Over the past decade, previous periods of value outperformance have been short-lived. Will this time be different?
Stuart Rumble + 3 others | 11 June 2020
Japanification in 12 charts
Many western economies are mirroring Japan’s experience over the past 30 years.These 12 charts show how some of the key trends are playing out.
Nicholas Price + 3 others | 9 June 2020
Chart Room: QE expectations vs. reality, market moves
Market expectations of future asset purchases by the Fed have an even greater influence than the purchases themselves.
Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 4 June 2020
Central banks in emerging markets hop on the bond-buying bandwagon
EM central bankers are taking a page from the developed-market playbook and purchasing local bonds as a way to cushion the blow
Eric Wong + 4 others | 29 May 2020
Chart Room: Mobility data shows most economies are rebounding slowly
Economic activity is being determined by virus response rather than slower-moving traditional industrial cycles. We need to adjust our toolkits accordingly.
Ian Samson + 2 others | 28 May 2020
China again primes growth with infrastructure investment
With exports expected to slump and consumption still struggling to fully recover, China is turning to a familiar playbook - infrastructure spending.
Jing Ning | 25 May 2020
Fidelity International Pulse Survey: Society’s big moment
Fidelity International's May survey of 145 analysts found that the Covid-19 crisis is focusing companies' attention on social issues.
Martin Dropkin + 2 others | 18 May 2020
Fidelity Leading Indicator shows broad weakness as the focus turns to recovery
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 12 May 2020
How India’s economy is navigating Covid-19
As the world begins to come out of lockdowns and economies normalise, India can offer bright spots for emerging market investors.
Amit Goel + 4 others | 7 May 2020
China’s tourists step out again
Over 100 million travellers in China hit the road over the five-day May Day holiday, the first big test for tourism since lockdowns started being lifted.
Tina Tian + 5 others | 7 May 2020
“Just in case” and the case for conditionality
This crisis has shown us that contingency planning is as important as risk mitigation and supply chain optimisation.
Anne Richards | 7 May 2020
Chart Room: What in the world is going on with gold?
The correlation between gold and equities has increased to an 18-month high, calling into question the metal’s usual benefit as a porfolio diversifier.
Joseph Zhang + 2 others | 7 May 2020
Chart Room: More policy easing supports China bonds
This week’s Chart Room shows how ample liquidity is helping China’s onshore bond markets navigate around global volatility.
Stuart Rumble + 2 others | 29 April 2020
A shelter from the storm, for now: China’s bond market set to open further
When global fixed income investors scrambled for cover last month, China’s onshore bond market was a rare haven with low volatility and no liquidity crunch.
Alvin Cheng + 5 others | 23 April 2020
Chart room: Beauty of big tech stocks is in the eye of the beholder
Our latest Chart Room takes a comparative look at the long run up in the Nasdaq 100 index.
Amit Lodha + 2 others | 23 April 2020
Oil below zero: bad, but not that bad
Oil fundamentals are weak - but Monday’s price move should be seen as an outlier.
James Trafford | 21 April 2020
China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction
China’s economy is turning the corner after a historically bad GDP contraction
Paras Anand + 3 others | 17 April 2020
Fidelity CIO: Possible economic scenarios
Challenges lie ahead for the global economy.
Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 16 April 2020
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19
Chart Room: Fidelity analysts expect longer disruptions from Covid-19
George Watson + 2 others | 16 April 2020
Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support
Macro briefing: Clock ticking on further fiscal support
Adnan Siddique | 9 April 2020
Delayed demand making its return to China’s property market
New home sales are recovering faster than expected in China. This has big implications for domestic demand and the macroeconomic outlook.
Ming Gong + 2 others | 8 April 2020
Spiking US unemployment could unleash a cascade of systemic risks
The unprecedented rise in US unemployment has the potential to set off a chain of events that could destabilize already fragile markets.
Wen-Wen Lindroth | 8 April 2020
Crisis drives shift in public/private relationship not seen since WWII
State aid for companies is likely to come with conditions attached.
Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 8 April 2020
FLI: Consumer pain leads the way
The three-month Fidelity Leading Indicator growth rate is already halfway to the Global Financial Crisis trough.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 8 April 2020
Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming
Macro briefing: Data weak as new measures keep coming
Adnan Siddique | 2 April 2020
Chart room: Governments open their fiscal taps
Doing "whatever it takes".
Edith Chan + 2 others | 2 April 2020
What recent market moves imply about the US economic outlook
We take a look at 20 years of data to estimate the hit to the US economy being priced in by equity and credit markets.
Peter May | 1 April 2020
Fidelity CIOs: A new paradigm
The Covid crisis is accelerating changes already underway.
Andrew McCaffery + 1 other | 1 April 2020
Macro briefing: Heavyweight policies launched but more may be required
Macro briefing: Heavyweight policies launched but more may be required
Anna Stupnytska + 1 other | 26 March 2020
Not business as usual
Global health, monetary and fiscal policy are converging to triage the worst impacts of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak, but they come with a cost.
Paras Anand | 26 March 2020
A cautious consumer rebound takes hold in China
Chinese consumers are offering a ray of hope in the economic wreckage from the Covid-19 coronavirus
Ben Li + 3 others | 26 March 2020
Massive US fiscal package needs effective implementation
A rescue package for ‘Main Street’ has been agreed. This far-reaching deal unlocks funds to support the US economy, but implementation is crucial.
Anna Stupnytska | 25 March 2020
Fidelity CIOs: Dollar devaluation could be the end game from Fed actions
Fiscal and monetary stimulus could weaken the dollar and be inflationary.
Steve Ellis + 1 other | 25 March 2020
China and its neighbours reboot supply chains
As China’s economy emerges from lockdown, activity across Asia’s sprawling network of factories, ports and logistics hubs is picking up.
Fidelity International + 1 other | 23 March 2020
Fidelity CIOs on market conditions and whether policy action is enough
Flat is becoming the new up.
Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 20 March 2020
Why the coronavirus crisis is more like 1918 than 2008
Why the coronavirus crisis is more like 1918 than 2008
Aditya Khowala | 18 March 2020
Bank of Japan’s coordinated easing signals more proactive asset purchases
Today’s move by the Bank of Japan to boost asset purchases underscores a globally coordinated effort by central banks to contain the coronavirus fallout.
Katsumi Ishibashi | 16 March 2020
China gets back to business
How fast and how fully activity recovers in China will have huge implications for one of the world’s key economic growth engines.
Bryan Collins | 13 March 2020
FLI: Consumer confidence holds up amid broad-based slowdown
For the first time in two years the Fidelity Leading Indicator cycle tracker signals both below-trend growth and deceleration.
Ian Samson | 10 March 2020
Cool Heads: Fidelity CIOs on oil crash, volatility and what's next
Managing liquidity is key.
Andrew McCaffery + 2 others | 10 March 2020
A supply and demand shock for oil markets
Expectations of a demand shock due to the Covid-19 coronavirus collided with an anticipated supply surge after OPEC+ had a major fallout over production cuts.
James Trafford | 8 March 2020
Outbreak deepens China’s e-commerce push
While the coronavirus threatens to put a dent in China’s overall growth, pockets of the online economy are booming.
Tina Tian + 1 other | 2 March 2020
Europe catches coronavirus: Inside the market sell-off
European equity and debt markets flipped from exuberance to pessimism after the coronavirus spread to Northern Italy.
Ario Emami Nejad + 2 others | 26 February 2020
When the playbook stops working
Why did markets wait so long to sell off in the wake of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak?
Paras Anand | 24 February 2020
A growing chasm
Optimism over a trade truce between the US and China is premature. Investors should be prepared for divergence in key areas.
Paras Anand | 12 February 2020
Coronavirus: the impact on our global economic outlook
Global growth shock in a world of limited policy tools.
Romain Boscher + 3 others | 10 February 2020
Cool Heads: Coronavirus
Markets respond to liquidity injection, but longer-term impact remains unclear.
Richard Edgar | 4 February 2020
China’s financial support targets second-order fallout from coronavirus
China’s healthcare workers have been struggling to contain the spread of coronavirus. Now, policymakers are grappling with the second-order financial effects.
Lynda Zhou + 1 other | 4 February 2020
Coronavirus: Sector impacts and lessons from SARS
Online businesses typically faring better than offline.
Fidelity International | 31 January 2020
Fed prolongs expansion for those left behind
Fed funds rate remains unchanged amid strong labour market.
Wen-Wen Lindroth + 1 other | 29 January 2020
Coronavirus impact: Fund manager views from Asia
Our fund managers give their views on the possible short- and long-term implications of this outbreak for investors.
Fidelity International | 29 January 2020
US China Phase 1: Apocalypse Postponed
'Phase 1’ of the US- China trade pact reveals no credible path forward, so instead the two sides have chosen to stand still
Ian Samson | 16 January 2020
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Still strong but approaching the limit
The Fidelity Leading Indicator's acceleration is circling back towards zero after a period of strong improvement.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 14 January 2020
Cool Heads: UK election result positive for markets, but not a game changer
The Conservatives have won the UK election, making Brexit more likely. Markets have rallied on the news, but longer-term implications remain unclear.
Fidelity International | 13 December 2019
Rates unchanged as Fed engineers soft landing
The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged as Chairman Jerome Powell says US economy is 'in a good place'
Wen-Wen Lindroth | 11 December 2019
Cool Heads: Investors are getting climate change wrong
Assessing a portfolio's climate pathway, rather than its emissions relative to a benchmark, should help reduce overall emissions.
Fidelity International | 3 December 2019
Fidelity Leading Indicator: Keeping the dream alive
The FLI is keeping the dream of a solid acceleration into 2020 alive, and points to the worst being in the rear-view mirror.
Ian Samson | 26 November 2019
Global GEARs whisper stabilisation
Our global proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) are starting to appear convincing in their stabilisation.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 November 2019
Labour shortages and ageing populations create opportunities for Japan's tech firms
Japan's technology sector offers companies that can grow across cycles by capitalising on labour shortages and other structural changes.
Nicholas Price | 4 November 2019
Cool Heads: where next for sterling?
Tim Foster says the pound could benefit from a more positive UK outlook.
Fidelity International | 23 October 2019
Hunting for yield in frontier markets: Egypt
When smaller frontier markets mature into benchmark names, early investors can earn attractive returns in these relatively niche, often overlooked places.
Paul Greer + 3 others | 15 October 2019
FLI: Surprisingly upbeat into Q4
The Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) showed firm improvement in September
Ian Samson | 9 October 2019
Mounting risks in 2020, despite central banks’ best efforts
Mounting risks in 2020, despite central banks’ best efforts. Investors should be ready in case as the macroeconomic and political environments evolve.
Wen-Wen Lindroth | 4 October 2019
China tiptoes down easing street with rate reform
While the Fed and ECB are signaling more rate cuts and quantitative easing to come, China’s central bank has been taking a more cautious approach.
Alvin Cheng + 2 others | 2 October 2019
Global GEARs suggest stable and subdued activity, now near levels of recent troughs
Our Global GEAR, an unweighted average across all countries, nudged higher and is now dead flat year-to-date.
Ian Samson | 20 September 2019
Risk premium rises after attack on Saudi oil hobbles global supply
US sanctions on Iran could be more severe.
James Trafford + 1 other | 16 September 2019
In 14 charts: China's unprecedented growth
China's unprecedented economic change in manufacturing and services has seen the country leapfrog its rivals in areas such as transport and mobile payments.
Bob Chen + 2 others | 16 September 2019
Despite macro challenges, pockets of resilience in Chinese corporate earnings
Some bright spots in recent earnings reports suggest interesting opportunities
George Efstathopoulos + 1 other | 4 September 2019
Grit in the GEARs, but global economy not grinding to a halt
Some grit in the GEARs persists, especially in Europe and some emerging markets, but the global economy has yet to grind to a halt.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 21 August 2019
Is seven an unlucky number for China’s currency?
China’s renminbi weakened past the seven per US dollar mark for the first time in more than ten years.
Bryan Collins + 4 others | 5 August 2019
Trump ratchets up US-China trade war with new tariffs
Donald Trump announced on Twitter this week that he plans to add new import tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese-made products
George Efstathopoulos | 2 August 2019
Seeing red: How long can the iron ore rally last?
Seeing red: How long can the iron ore rally last?
Oscar Hutchinson | 24 July 2019
Gold still has space to shine on
We see more upside for gold, thanks to a potent cocktail of falling interest rates, rising long term inflation expectations and heightening recession concerns.
Oscar Hutchinson | 17 July 2019
China’s hunger for 17m tons of pork benefits Brazil
China may have to import up to 17 million tons of pork to fill a production gap caused by African Swine Fever.
Terrence Pang + 1 other | 4 July 2019
With US-China trade talks back on track, investors’ focus turns to China economy
With US-China trade talks back on track, investors’ focus turns to China economy
Jing Ning + 3 others | 2 July 2019
Should investors hedge against big market moves now?
With all the uncertainty about the global economic outlook, investors ask whether it's time to add protection against volatility to their portfolios.
Vincent Li + 1 other | 28 June 2019
US-China trade wars: What to expect from the G20
US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to hold an informal meeting at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28-29.
Jeremy Ocansey | 25 June 2019
Central bank fears, calmer GEARs?
Our proprietary Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEARs) show the latest Global GEAR looks stable and decently above its recent lows.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 19 June 2019
Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens
Downshifting GEARs as global rebound softens
Ian Samson + 1 other | 20 May 2019
From Heisei to Reiwa: Record-long market holiday heralds Japan’s new Imperial era
From Heisei to Reiwa: Record-long market holiday heralds Japan’s new Imperial era
Takashi Maruyama + 1 other | 26 April 2019
China’s stimulus is working, but credit markets hold longer-term risks
The credit stimulus measures that China began last summer are starting to reach a critical mass, but transmission to the real economy remains patchy.
Forest Shultz + 4 others | 18 April 2019
Amid China’s grab bag of economic data, surging credit growth will do the real work
A closer look at China’s first quarter GDP data reveals some mixed messages about the country’s economic performance.
Ian Samson | 18 April 2019
Fidelity Leading Indicator: A sign of life?
Our leading indicator is at a crossroads
Ian Samson + 1 other | 11 April 2019
A Goldilocks moment for China’s monetary policy, but watch for more easing and bond index inclusion
Two events are driving the outlook for China fixed income- easing monetary conditions and the expected inclusion of Chinese bonds in benchmark indexes.
Bryan Collins + 4 others | 14 March 2019
Macro slowdown clashes with market optimism
The disconnect between economic fundamentals and markets is unlikely to be sustainable in the short term.
Anna Stupnytska | 28 February 2019
Emerging market investors should make hay while the sun shines
Investors are returning to emerging markets after a traumatic 2018, led by a weaker dollar and China stimulus
Paul Greer | 19 February 2019
In nine charts: the world in 2029
The next decade provides new opportunities for travel and tech businesses, but also challenges in the form of increased risks to the environment.
Bob Chen + 1 other | 14 January 2019
Emerging Markets' glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it
Emerging Markets glass might become ‘half-full’ - or China might smash it
Ian Samson | 14 January 2019
Choose your own adventure: China’s economic destiny
What does it mean for the rest of the world if in a decade's time China becomes the preeminent economic superpower, or gets stuck in the middle-income trap?
Anna Stupnytska + 4 others | 11 January 2019
What the rest of the world is predicting for 2029
Forecasters offer us glimpses of the world in 2029 - and yes, it will have more robots.
Lisa Twaronite | 11 January 2019
Podcast: The world in 2029
What could global markets look like in 2029? How will the way we invest change in the future? And why shifts in social norms might affect our approaches.
Richard Edgar | 11 January 2019
2019 China Outlook- Time to enter the tiger’s den?
We explore the opportunities in China equities and fixed income in 2019.
George Efstathopoulos + 3 others | 10 January 2019
Price moderation is an encouraging sign in the global housing market
Price moderation in some overvalued housing markets is an encouraging sign, as it is due mostly to supply-side policy measures rather than weakness in demand.
Anna Stupnytska | 13 December 2018
EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come
Risks remain to the downside for emerging markets due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.
Ian Samson | 28 November 2018
The opportunities in China's mixed-bag economy
Despite dismal headlines, China's real economy is more of a mixed bag. Corporates are focusing on shareholder returns and valuations have retreated from peaks.
Jing Ning | 27 November 2018
Oil prices: What's the story?
Oil has plummeted since early October. Political manoeuvring and technical selling are exacerbating the decline, and the sell-off is likely to be overdone.
Randy Cutler | 25 November 2018
Midterms could be good for the US economy
Midterms could be good for the US economy
Paras Anand | 7 November 2018
Profiting from demographics: exploiting investment opportunities in a slow-moving world
The impact of demographic trends on companies, industries and entire economies, is a powerful tool when it comes to making profitable investment decisions.
Ned Salter + 6 others | 30 October 2018
Emerging market GEARs weaken further in September
Our macro indicator shows emerging markets are under pressure
Ian Samson + 1 other | 17 October 2018
The Italian government surprises markets with plan to increase budget deficit
The Italian government threw down a gauntlet to the European Commission by announcing a spending-prone budget that defied expectations.
David Simner + 1 other | 28 September 2018
GEAR levels show exuberant US economy
Recent economic data show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe.
Ian Samson + 1 other | 25 September 2018
Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker.
Ian Samson | 12 September 2018
Ten years since the crisis: the risks have changed
Investors and policy makers have learned their lessons, but we may be looking in the wrong direction for the next dislocations.
Paras Anand | 31 August 2018
The Bank of Japan fine-tunes monetary policy but sticks to aggressive easing
The Bank of Japan kept its easy monetary policy while tweaking its framework to give itself more flexibility, emphasising that normalisation is nowhere near.
Katsumi Ishibashi | 31 July 2018
Credit markets react to China's new easing measures
China’s emphasis on deleveraging has softened in recent months, but credit flow to the economy has remained weak.
Bryan Collins + 4 others | 27 July 2018
Revisiting the 'Fragile Five' at five
Five years since they were dubbed the 'Fragile Five', the emerging market economies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey look more robust.
Eric Wong + 1 other | 24 July 2018
Emerging Markets outlook: Not out of the woods
Despite better data in June, the Fidelity Leading Indicator remains negative, especially in key EM-sensitive areas like global trade and commodities.
Ian Samson | 19 July 2018
Fidelity Leading Indicator: growth down, risks rising
Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator (FLI) remains in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its Cycle Tracker for the fourth straight month.
Ian Samson | 16 July 2018
US-China trade tensions ratchet up
The US has launched another round of tariffs on exports from China, sparking market jitters. But there are reasons to be positive on Chinese equities.
George Efstathopoulos | 11 July 2018
The changing nature of inflation
What does lower inflation for longer mean for the future dynamics of inflation indicators
Anna Stupnytska | 14 December 2017
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